Trade in AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of global goods trade growth in 2025, and that share climbed to 76% in the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis cited in the latest DHL Globalisation Tracker, produced with NYU's Stern School of Business.

Demand for AI infrastructure inputs — semiconductors and data-transmission equipment — has absorbed air cargo capacity out of Asia and, in the process, shielded global trade from tariffs and geopolitical shocks, the report found.

"The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs," said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express. "Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time."

What does the data show?

Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the Covid rebound. Regional performance diverged sharply:

• East Asia and the Pacific: trade value up 24% in the first five months of 2026 year on year — the strongest of any region
• Europe: up 12%
• Sub-Saharan Africa: up 11%

East Asia and the Pacific also traded more within the region. The intra-regional share rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, a shift the report attributes to strong Asian supply chains serving the AI buildout.

What does this mean for air cargo?

The AI boom has already reshaped capacity dynamics on Asian trade lanes. Air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is now dominated by AI and semiconductor shipments rather than e-commerce, recent analysis by forwarder Dimerco found.

For carriers and forwarders, that means the demand mix on Asia outbound lanes has rotated from low-yield e-commerce parcels toward high-value technology hardware, tightening capacity for other cargo types. DHL is positioning its network to capture exactly these flows. "Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving," Pearson said.

How much did war and tariffs actually hurt?

The Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply chains and forced airlines to suspend cargo operations in the region — some flights are still not reinstated. But the damage stayed concentrated in Strait-dependent economies. Trade value fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 versus the same period of 2025.

US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, yet the global impact stayed limited for two reasons. The US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, and roughly half of those imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August. Most countries also refrained from broad retaliation, choosing instead to secure alternative markets through new trade agreements.

"The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war," said Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern's Center for the Future of Management. "The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognise the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient."

Altman added that the AI trade boom "highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialised producers work together across countries" and shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.

What comes next?

The Globalisation Tracker projects global goods trade to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029 — substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade. If AI infrastructure demand keeps consuming Asian air cargo capacity at the current pace, shippers of non-AI commodities on those lanes should expect tighter space and firmer rates into 2027.