Zambia–Lobito railway targets 5 million tonnes and 2027 close

By Amara Osei

The Zambia–Lobito Railway is targeting financial close in 2027 and approximately 5 million tonnes of annual freight at steady state, according to Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

AFC, the project’s lead sponsor and developer, is advancing an approximately 830-kilometre railway from Chingola in Zambia’s Copperbelt to Luacano in Angola. At Luacano, the line will connect with the existing Benguela Railway and provide direct access to the Atlantic Ocean through the Port of Lobito.

President Hakainde Hichilema received an AFC delegation led by the corporation’s president and chief executive, Samaila Zubairu, to review the project. The proposed route forms part of the broader Lobito Corridor initiative.

What does this change for shippers?

The proposed Copperbelt-to-Port of Lobito transit is expected to take approximately seven days. For shippers, AFC presents the railway as a direct Atlantic export route for Zambian copper and critical minerals. It also expects the corridor to support agricultural exports, petroleum logistics, manufacturing and regional trade.

That gives forwarders a clear trade-lane proposition: Chingola to Luacano, then the Benguela Railway to Lobito. It does not yet provide a tariff, confirmed timetable or construction-start date, so the commercial savings remain a project promise rather than a bookable service.

How much freight is actually lined up?

AFC has signed memoranda of understanding and letters of intent with prospective railway users covering approximately 2 million tonnes of freight a year. That equals 40% of its 5-million-tonne steady-state target, which is a useful signal but not contracted cargo.

The target cargo mix comprises:

• Petroleum products
• Agricultural commodities
• Copper
• Cobalt
• Zinc
• Other industrial cargo

At a simple 365-day annual average, 5 million tonnes is about 13,700 tonnes a day. Actual daily volumes will depend on the operating plan, which AFC has not disclosed.

AFC announced preferred bidders last month for the engineering, procurement and construction contracts covering the Angolan and Zambian sections. The selection followed an international competitive tender.

What remains before construction?

Government and AFC discussions focused on the railway’s right of way and land for associated agricultural, petroleum and freight-handling facilities. They also considered rail-sector policy measures to support long-term competitiveness, including integration with the Zambia Railways network and the Chingola–Ndola line.

AFC continues to work with the governments of Angola and Zambia, the European Union, the United States government, the government of Italy and the African Development Bank. The project’s partner group also includes Italian development finance institution CDP and Italian export credit agency SACE.

Those parties are working to bring the railway into construction, but financial close remains the gating step in AFC’s plan. No financing amount or firm construction timetable was announced in the project update.

What do Zambia and AFC say?

Hichilema tied the railway to Zambia’s wider industrial policy:

“The Zambia–Lobito Railway is central to our vision of transforming Zambia into a competitive regional hub for trade, manufacturing, agriculture and mineral value addition.

“By connecting our productive sectors to international markets more efficiently, we can reduce logistics costs, attract investment and create jobs. We welcome AFC’s progress and will continue working closely together to advance this strategic project.”

Zubairu connected the proposed seven-day transit with domestic value addition:

“Every tonne that leaves Zambia unprocessed takes jobs away with it. This railway changes that.

“Starting in Chingola, it gives Zambia a seven-day route to the Atlantic and every reason to process, manufacture and add value at home.

“With preferred EPC bidders selected and strong interest from freight users, we are now working with the Governments of Zambia and Angola, the African Development Bank, the Government of Italy and our other partners to reach financial close.

“We are building a railway. Zambia will build an economy on it.”

What should freight users watch next?

The first checkpoint is whether the 2027 financial-close target survives the remaining land, policy and contracting work. The second is whether the 2 million tonnes of prospective demand becomes binding shipments and whether the network can support the 5-million-tonne ambition.

If both tests pass, the corridor can give Zambian exporters the direct Atlantic outlet AFC has promised; if either slips, today’s tonnage remains an ambition rather than operating capacity.