Fourteen VLCC transactions were registered in September, against five in August, with disclosed deal values reaching approximately $1.54bn compared with $324m the previous month — a near fivefold increase in recorded investment, according to VesselsValue's sales register, which has still to list sales from week 39.

The surge in tonnage buying runs alongside a sharp climb in tanker asset prices. Five-year-old VLCCs are now valued at $180m, up 6.51% week-on-week, AXIA Shipbrokers reported. The escalation is driven by the ongoing conflict affecting Middle East supply, which has propelled earnings to levels that make even record purchase prices look defensible.

Earnings data explains the buying frenzy. AXIA's latest numbers show VLCC one-year time charter rates at $216,000 per day, while eco-scrubber VLCC spot earnings averaged approximately $614,032 per day. At those levels, a $160m vessel can theoretically recover its purchase price in well under a year of trading — arithmetic that keeps owners and investors bidding.

Sales chatter now surrounds a headline deal involving two 2011-built VLCCs selling at $160m each. Rumours also circulate of a quartet of resales going for a record $250m each, a level that would set a new benchmark for the segment if confirmed.

ADNOC Logistics and Services, the United Arab Emirates-based owner, remains one of the most active names in the VLCC segment across July, August and September, with ships both added to its fleet and others reported sold. Onex DMCC of Dubai has been the most active player this month, with six deals linked to its name.

Sinokor has stayed busy cashing in on surging VLCC values. Broker sources tell Splash the Korean player has sold the 2008-built, 319,400 dwt Rain Cubic — a tanker it bought as Shaybah from Bahri in February for just $59m. Sinokor bought the Daewoo-built ship at the bottom of the market and is selling it into strength. Keen to stay in the game, the owner is also reported to be buying the three-year-younger, 319,471 dwt Atherina for $146m, effectively recycling capital from an aging unit into a younger one while pocketing the spread.

The pattern of trade is telling. Owners who bought elderly VLCCs cheaply in late 2023 and early 2024 are now flipping them at multiples of their entry price, then redeploying proceeds into younger tonnage at prices that would have seemed reckless a year ago. For buyers, the bet is that earnings hold; for sellers, the calculus locks in gains before any correction.

For commercial players downstream, the consequences are layered. Owners face a shrinking pool of attractive tonnage as values run ahead of replacement economics, forcing decisions on whether to buy at the top or hold aging assets earning record spot returns. Charterers face the opposite problem: owners have less incentive to fix long when spot earnings near $614,000 per day dwarf time charter equivalents, which tightens availability and pushes one-year period rates — already at $216,000 per day — higher still. Forwarders and traders moving crude in VLCC parcels should expect owners to hold out for stronger stems, with fixture discipline hardening while the Middle East conflict premium persists.

The secondary market's depth matters here. Fourteen registered transactions in a single month, with the register still incomplete for week 39, suggests liquidity that allows owners to exit or reposition quickly — a feature of seller-friendly markets. When transaction counts fall and the bid-ask spread widens again, that will be an early signal the cycle is turning.

Whether the rumoured $250m resales print will define a new ceiling for VLCC pricing remains to be seen, but with values compounding weekly, five-year-old ships at $180m, and spot earnings at $614,000 per day, the market's trajectory depends on the Middle East conflict's course — and on how long owners can resist locking in gains before tonnage supply and rate expectations catch up.