US Trucking Sheds 100,000 Tractors as Small Carriers Exit

The US for-hire trucking industry has lost roughly 100,000 tractors over the past year — including about 51,000 in a single summer month — driving the active tractor count to its lowest level since early 2022, according to FreightWaves data. That capacity exodus is the clearest signal yet that the prolonged freight recession has permanently squeezed out a meaningful share of the carrier base, particularly among small fleets.

The shrinkage is strikingly uneven. Fleets operating between 20 and 1,000 trucks are up 12% over the last five years, while the industry's edges are contracting sharply. Carriers with 1 to 6 trucks have erased their entire pandemic-era expansion, and fleets above 1,000 trucks are down about 9% as large operators deliberately park equipment to maximize utilization rather than grow headcount.

Why are trucks leaving while rates rise?

Industry analyst Julie Van de Kamp points to a lag effect at the core of the paradox. Rates are rising, but they have not climbed fast enough to rescue carriers whose finances were battered during a prolonged stretch when rates ran well below operating costs.

"It's not necessarily that trucks are disappearing, it's that they're moving up," Van de Kamp said. "The 1 to 6 truck carriers have really erased the entire pandemic boom when so many trucks came in after that tight capacity market."

Diesel fuel above $6 a gallon adds further pressure on any operator not fully recovering fuel costs through surcharges. Increased regulation and liability concerns compound the squeeze on small fleets, while large carriers continue to grapple with persistent driver recruiting and retention challenges.

What do the numbers say about rates?

Rate conditions are improving across the board. The all-in spot rate, measured by the NTI USA index, stood at $360 as of the November 13 broadcast date, up 2.86% month over month. Truckload contract rates — the VCRPM1 linehaul measure — hit $2.88, a 25% jump year over year. For context, a one-quarter increase in contract pricing in twelve months represents the sharpest repricing shippers have faced since the pandemic-era cycle.

Intermodal contract rates, tracked by the IMCRPM1 USA index, reached $1.78, up more than 6.5% year over year. Even at that level, rail intermodal still represents substantial savings versus truckload for shippers willing to convert freight.

How tight is capacity?

Overall tender rejection rates (STRI) are holding just below 13%, at 12.87%, down roughly 1% month over month but supported by the tightening tractor supply. The picture varies sharply by equipment type:

• Flatbed tender rejections hover around 20% to 21%, a level sustained since late September.
• Refrigerated tender rejections sit in the same 20% to 21% band.
• Dry van rejections are notably softer at 10.4%.

Volumes, measured by the STVI index, rose about 4% from October 1 — from 11,068 to the current 11,405 — even as the index slipped 3% to 4% week over week.

Van de Kamp flagged early signs of pre-peak tightening out of California and rising volumes in parts of Texas and the western Midwest, including Kansas.

What should shippers and carriers do now?

For shippers, the advice is direct: budget for higher contract rates into 2027, pursue mode conversion to intermodal where feasible, and monitor reefer and Midwest demand trends. Carriers, even those benefiting from the rate recovery, received a pointed reminder from Van de Kamp: "Really understand your true costs when pricing out that freight."

With the tractor count at a near three-year low and rejections near 13% overall, the market's structural shift favors mid-size fleets — and the carriers that survive the lag between rising rates and recovered balance sheets should head into 2026 with materially stronger pricing leverage.