US Plans to Reclassify Shadow Tankers, But Analysts See Few Takers

Only 24 of roughly 160 OFAC-sanctioned VLCCs could realistically return to mainstream trading under the Trump administration's plan to legitimise shadow-fleet tankers, according to Kpler — a fraction of a global dark fleet that US energy secretary Chris Wright puts at about 1,600 vessels.

Wright revealed the initiative yesterday at a Citadel Securities event in New York. The government is building an approval process that would let sanctioned oil tankers pass to vetted investors, who would refurbish the ships and return them to legitimate crude trades carrying only non-sanctioned oil.

"We're going to move some of the ships from what I call the 'bad-guy fleet' to the 'good-guy fleet,'" Wright said.

He framed the move as asset conversion rather than sanctions relief, insisting it does not amount to a blanket lifting of restrictions on Iranian or Russian oil. He suggested "dozens" of vessels — possibly "hundreds" — might eventually re-enter compliant trading.

The timing points to freight costs as the driver. Washington is scrambling to contain soaring tanker rates amid the Hormuz crisis, where war risk rather than vessel counts is the decisive variable, Kpler argued yesterday. The analyst firm also warned that loosening sanctions could weaken geopolitical leverage without delivering meaningful rate relief.

How much tonnage can actually come back?

The screening houses converge on a strikingly small number:

• Kpler: 24 of roughly 160 OFAC-sanctioned VLCCs qualify once ownership and age restrictions apply
• Braemar: just 19 VLCCs, after excluding vessels tied to Iran and European sanctions
• Arrow Research: a maximum of 22 eligible tankers across all sizes, including 14 VLCCs and none in the suezmax or aframax segments
• BRS: 148 US-sanctioned deepsea tankers in total, equal to just 2.5% of the global deepsea fleet

BRS added a further constraint: only 14 of those vessels appear to have sat idle for more than three months. Most of the remainder already work in grey trades, and UK and EU restrictions could block them from obtaining insurance and other maritime services.

For shipowners who have spent years investing in compliance, the initiative sends an uncomfortable signal.

What does INTERTANKO object to?

The tanker owners' association pushed back hard, warning that legalising a vessel does not automatically fix its condition, ownership or insurance.

"If additional tanker capacity is required, policy should encourage cargoes towards the quality, compliant fleet," INTERTANKO said.

The association flagged opaque insurance arrangements, weak oversight and missing inspection histories as risks to crews, the environment and coastal states — while rewarding operators that skirted the rules at the expense of those that complied.

Braemar stressed that any lasting impact on rates depends on Hormuz flows and on how long Washington's approval arrangements stay in place. BRS reached a similar verdict: with most eligible tonnage already employed and the fundamental constraints on tanker movements through Hormuz unresolved, the initiative is unlikely to move freight rates significantly in the near term.

Arrow is more blunt on direction, seeing continued upside risk for freight. The firm expects the strong market could extend through the first quarter of 2027 as shuttle operations, ship-to-ship transfers and security risks keep tonnage tied up.

A pattern of easing pressure

The shadow-fleet move follows Washington's decision earlier this month to temporarily authorise Russian diesel trade until April 7, 2027 — a step that drew criticism from Kyiv and from US lawmakers.

For charterers and refiners, the practical takeaway is that capacity relief, if it arrives at all, will be slow and narrow. With fewer than two dozen realistic VLCC candidates against a 1,600-ship dark fleet, and Hormuz war risk still anchoring premiums, tanker rates look set to stay elevated well into 2027.