Fresh trade tensions between the United States and Canada have pushed tariff risk back to the top of the corporate agenda, according to insurance broker Lockton, which says the dispute underscores how exposed businesses remain to sudden cross-border policy shifts.

The warning lands hardest on shippers and importers moving freight across the world's longest undefended border, where goods cross daily under supply chains built on the assumption of duty-free flow. For freight forwarders and risk managers, the message from Lockton is direct: the current friction is not a one-off event but a symptom of a tariff environment that can change faster than contracts can.

What is driving the renewed tension?

The flare-up between Washington and Ottawa follows a period in which tariff threats have repeatedly disrupted North American trade planning. Lockton frames the situation as a reminder that businesses cannot treat tariff policy as settled, even between close trading partners with deep economic integration.

That integration is the problem. U.S.-Canada supply chains are engineered around just-in-time delivery, with automotive parts, energy products and agricultural goods criss-crossing the border multiple times before reaching end customers. Each crossing multiplies the number of points at which a new duty could attach to a shipment.

For carriers and forwarders serving lanes such as Detroit-Windsor or the crossings at Buffalo and Blaine, the commercial consequence is straightforward. Shippers facing unpredictable duty bills will demand clearer tariff-impact clauses in contracts, tighter customs documentation and faster scenario planning from their logistics providers.

Why does Lockton see persistent risk?

Lockton's core argument is that businesses tend to treat tariff disputes as episodic crises that fade after headlines cool. The broker contends the opposite: the policy tools that create tariff risk remain available and in active political use, which means companies need standing mitigation rather than reactive responses.

For risk managers, the practical exposures include:

• Sudden cost increases on imported inputs, absorbed by importer of record
• Contract disputes over who pays newly imposed duties
• Insurance and coverage questions when tariff costs disrupt delivery obligations
• Planning uncertainty that complicates sourcing and routing decisions

Each of these carries a direct freight dimension. A duty imposed mid-contract can erase a lane's margin for a forwarder, or push an importer to reroute volumes through alternate ports and border crossings — capacity shifts that ripple through trucking and intermodal networks on both sides of the border.

How should shippers and forwarders respond?

Lockton's guidance points toward preparation over prediction. Businesses that map their tariff exposure — knowing which products, lanes and supplier relationships carry duty risk — can move faster when policy changes, renegotiating terms or shifting sourcing before costs compound.

Forwarders and carriers, for their part, should expect customers to demand more granular customs data and faster duty-spend reporting. The brokers and insurers sitting between shippers and regulators will likely see growth in demand for trade-related coverage and advisory work as long as tensions persist.

The broader lesson extends beyond the U.S.-Canada corridor. If two economies this integrated can face renewed tariff friction, businesses trading on any major lane face similar structural exposure — a point Lockton emphasizes for companies that assumed deep trade relationships insulate them from policy shocks.

With tariff threats now a recurring feature of North American politics rather than an exception, shippers on U.S.-Canada lanes should plan for a period in which duty risk stays on the negotiating table — and price their freight and contracts accordingly.