By James Calloway

Trump's executive order targeting diesel prices drew fresh skepticism from US trucking operators, with carriers telling Yahoo Finance the directive is unlikely to deliver near-term relief at the pump. The skepticism is structural, not political. The headline summarizes a broader industry view: presidential action on energy supply does not translate into retail fuel cuts.

What does the order actually do?

Public reporting on the order points to domestic refining capacity, pipeline permitting, and easing of certain biofuel-blending rules. Those are supply-side levers that take 12 to 36 months to filter into the wholesale market. They do not move the retail diesel number at the corner pump by Tuesday.

Why do carriers doubt the price impact?

Diesel pricing in the United States rides a layered cost stack. Wholesale tracks crude benchmarks and refinery margins, and both move on global supply and demand. Retail adds distribution, retail mark-up, and the 24.4-cent federal excise tax, unchanged since 1993. An executive order does not touch the tax code, the refining margin, the Renewable Fuel Standard obligation that sets biofuel blending economics, or the merchant cost stack refiners post at the rack. Carriers see supply policy, not price policy.

What does diesel cost truckers at the pump?

Fuel typically runs 20% to 30% of operating expense for over-the-road carriers, depending on lane and equipment. A Class 8 tractor-trailer averages roughly 6 miles per gallon. A 50-cent swing in retail diesel moves per-mile cost about 8 cents on that math. Multiplied across a 12-truck fleet running 100,000 miles a year, that swings annual fuel cost by roughly $100,000.

How does that filter into freight rates?

Most large motor carriers pass fuel through a surcharge table tied to the Department of Energy's weekly national diesel index. Shippers with dedicated contracts should expect their fuel surcharge clauses to do exactly what the contract says — nothing more, nothing less. Clauses that reset on contract anniversary rather than the DOE index leave shippers exposed when prices rise and carriers exposed when they drop.

What happens in spot truckload?

Owner-operators and sub-25-truck fleets lack the volume to lock wholesale supply and ride spot diesel. Their cost-of-service bumps feed straight into spot rates on DAT and Truckstop.com. The same carriers also lack the balance sheet to absorb a sustained 30-cent diesel spike, so the pass-through lands on the spot board inside 30 days. Brokers should expect those rates to keep tracking diesel within a band, not politics. Dry van spot has held mid-single-digit per-mile ranges through the past four quarters; reefer typically runs 20 to 40 cents higher.

What should shippers and forwarders plan for?

Assume diesel stays where it is, give or take 20 cents in either direction. The EIA's weekly retail on-highway diesel survey shows retail diesel has printed above $3.50 per gallon for most of the past three years. That baseline should anchor any fuel-cost forecast through the next two quarters. Forwarders pricing truckload should hold their lanes; carriers running lean should hedge accordingly on the DOE index.

For now, the trucking industry's read is the one shippers and brokers should anchor to: an order that touches supply does not move retail fuel. Expect headline noise, not pump relief.