Truckload Rates Up 10% on 2% Volume Growth: The Cycle Nobody Can Time

Truckload base rates rose 10% in September while shipment volumes climbed just 2%, according to the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index — an inflationary divergence that sits at the heart of the current freight cycle and, on the evidence of the past quarter-century, one nobody can reliably time.

That is the core message of FreightWaves' latest Chart of the Week, built on the Cass Freight Shipments Index (CFIS) and the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (CTLI). Plotted together over 25 years, the two series reveal several distinct cycles, one giant anomaly in the middle, and an uncomfortable conclusion for anyone planning around a return to "normal."

What do the two indexes actually measure?

The CFIS captures shipments across truckload, intermodal, LTL and several smaller modes, making it a broad proxy for total US transportation demand. Because it draws on invoice data, it runs with a slight lag.

The CTLI measures the base cost of a truckload move, excluding fuel and accessorial charges. Strip out diesel and surcharges, the argument goes, and you get a cleaner read on truckload supply and demand than headline rates provide.

How did the century's cycles unfold?

The story begins in 2000, when the CFIS recorded the early effects of the dot-com collapse and the economic fallout from 9/11 as the economy slipped into recession. Goods demand, notably, stayed muted longer than the broader economy did.

Then came 2004 — one of the strongest economic years in modern times. Low interest rates fueled a housing boom, helped along by the subprime mortgage market that would cause problems later. Fuel prices turned volatile and real GDP grew about 3.8%. Strong goods demand against limited capacity elevated freight brokerages from a backhaul play into a structural force. Brokers adopted newly accessible internet-era technology, connectivity let smaller carriers haul for larger shippers, and owner-operator growth accelerated over the next decade.

In 2008 the housing market collapsed, triggering the Great Recession, with weakness lingering into 2010. By early 2011 the economy was recovering, growing slowly but steadily for five years.

Why does everyone call 2011–2015 'normal'?

Because it was the most stable stretch of the past 26 years — and it set the expectations many participants still carry. The CFIS traced a clear 12-month seasonal pattern, and truckload base rates grew at about 3% a year until 2016.

That calm broke in late 2015, when energy markets collapsed and triggered a mini freight recession through most of 2016 — one many participants did not fully recognize until after the fact. Economic growth slowed from roughly 4% in early 2015 to 1.5% a year later, the industrial economy struggled, and truckload base rates fell about 2%.

By early 2017 capacity had tightened and demand was returning. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed that December, added further fuel heading into 2018. Rising demand against shrinking capacity produced one of the strongest and longest spot-rate upswings in modern history; Hurricane Harvey and the ELD mandate tightened conditions further that fall and winter. Many dismissed the period as a "black swan" that would not repeat.

It repeated. As with every rapid expansion in the record, contraction followed. The tax cuts delivered a temporary "sugar high," while strong rates attracted new entrants: active trucking authorities rose about 15% from early 2017 to early 2019. The 2019 freight recession then produced what were, at the time, the largest trucking failures of the century — truckload carrier Celadon and LTL carrier New England Motor Freight both shut down. Those exits made the COVID era more extreme, because capacity had been leaving the market just before demand boomed.

What did COVID change?

Everything, and briefly. COVID was the freight market's second black-swan-type event in three years — which, as the analysis notes, undercuts the idea that such events are rare. Government stimulus, enhanced unemployment benefits and the work-from-home shift drove an unprecedented goods-demand boom and supply chain shocks.

The overstimulated environment gave way, once again, to a downturn: the longest freight recession of the 2000s, running from early 2022 through the 2025 holiday season.

Where does the market stand now?

The US is approaching a year into a new cycle, and the data suggests putting a timeline on any cycle is a fool's errand. This one carries its own nuances: higher barriers to entry from regulatory pressure, diesel prices and interest rates. Demand remains relatively weak — hard to reconcile with an inflationary market in which CTLI rates were up 10% in September against 2% volume growth.

The lessons are structural rather than tactical. The freight market does not operate on an island; it is shaped by outside forces and by every part of the economy. Expecting the 2010–2015 environment to return, the analysis argues, may be the worst assumption a business can make when planning ahead.

How long will the current cycle run?

History suggests 12 months is the low end. With demand still near the bottom of its range, any upside economic surprise could extend the cycle by several months. Anyone betting on rates easing quickly in the coming months is also betting on a broader economic slowdown — and the revenue hit that comes with it. CFOs, take note.