Westbound air cargo demand from Asia to North America grew 12% year-over-year in June, with load factors running at "lofty heights" into a peak season that operators expect to leave no slack through the end of 2026.

DHL Global Forwarding senior vice president for airfreight in Asia Pacific Fabio Weiss said the carrier expects transpacific volumes to stay healthy across the next 12 months, anchored by AI infrastructure investment and chip, server and high-tech manufacturing flows.

"Continued supply chain diversification is creating a wider network of export origins across Asia," Weiss said. "Vietnam and Thailand are emerging as important sources for technology components, while Singapore and Malaysia play significant roles in server-rack assembly."

Where is the new capacity coming from?

Carriers and forwarders are scrambling to add controlled lift as passenger-belly supply lags demand.

CEVA Logistics launched three weekly Boeing 777-200 freighter flights in June from Hanoi to Chicago, using equipment from CMA CGM. DHL GF rolled out "TransPac Connect" in July — a dedicated transpacific airfreight product running three times a week from Bangkok to Cincinnati and connecting Hanoi and Taipei into key US gateways.

DSV added a weekly 777F rotation from Seoul to Chicago Rockford International Airport (RFD), joining the forwarder's existing Shanghai and Luxembourg services. Shanghai-based cross-border e-commerce specialist Rich Sale International now runs twice-weekly freighters into RFD from Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport.

RFD executive director Zack Oakley said the airport logged 9.2% landed-weight growth last year, lifting it to 12th among US cargo airports. The gateway invested close to $100m during Covid to expand parking stands and cargo warehousing. A new temperature-controlled facility is targeted to open by the second quarter of next year.

Why are freighters circling back to the Pacific?

Tighter European Union rules on low-value parcel imports throttled e-commerce flows out of China, and some of the freighter capacity that served Asia-Europe has rotated west.

That reshuffle has redrawn the lane picture. Nippon Cargo Airlines Americas president Shawn McWhorter warned that industry tracking misses much of the dedicated freighter volume now operated directly by forwarders.

"Lots of industry statistics don't include dedicated forwarder traffic, so you don't know if the market has shrunk or if a change you see is due to capacity that has not been reported," he said.

Where is the next growth lane?

Air Canada managing director for commercial cargo Matt Casey reported that parcel volumes out of Asia are tilting south.

"Last year we've seen a shift more to Latin America," Casey said. "We've seen growing volumes to Guatemala and San Jose, also to Lima and Bogota."

The carrier recently signed a partnership with the Abra Group, parent of Avianca and GOL. Next May it intends to open three-times-weekly Vancouver-Guangzhou service and add daily Shanghai-Toronto flights, part of a delivery slate of more than 20 aircraft next year including 14 Boeing 787-10s.

RFD's Oakley said interest in a direct Asia-LatAm service is "lively," pointing to Dallas/Fort Worth and other US hubs as faster one-stop alternatives to a Miami connection.

What is the capacity ceiling?

Boeing and Airbus output cuts and a shortage of widebody feedstock for freighter conversions set a hard ceiling on lift additions. Nippon Cargo Airlines' integration with ANA is nearly complete outside of IT, which McWhorter said finishes early next year.

Dimerco Express Group senior vice president Kenneth Leung projected Malaysia volumes — both transpacific and intra-Asia — would double within the next 12 months as server-rack assembly ramps.

"Capacity will be tight due to demand from AI, semiconductor and high-tech manufacturing as well as from shippers that need to ensure adequate inventories for the end-of-year holiday season," Leung said.

Weiss said DHL GF is broadening beyond airport-to-airport carriage into integrated air, ocean, warehousing and customs work for data center and semiconductor customers.

With Boeing and Airbus widebody output constrained and no slack season in sight, transpacific airfreight rates and charter premiums look set to stay elevated into the 2026 peak.