US and China have dialled back tariffs, and the ocean freight market has one question left: how high do rates climb from here?

That is, more or less, the headline Xeneta has put on the week's most consequential trade story. For shippers who locked in cheap capacity during the soft market of 2024, and for carriers still nursing red ink, the answer will decide who blinks first at the booking window.

What changed at the dock?

The mechanics are familiar to anyone who has watched more than one tariff cycle. Bilateral duties between Washington and Beijing have come down from their 2024 highs. Containerised trade volumes usually follow — within weeks, usually on the transpacific, usually out of Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian toward Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland.

When the world's two largest economies ease trade barriers, the playbook runs like this:

• US importers pull forward orders they had paused or rerouted through Vietnam and Mexico
• Ocean carriers tighten blank sailings, reasoning that demand will fill the slots
• Spot rates on the transpacific jump ahead of contract benchmarks

The first step has already begun. The second is a decision the major lines — Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, COSCO, Hapag-Lloyd and Evergreen, plus the alliance partners — are still sitting on. The third is precisely what Xeneta is now asking the market to price.

How much headroom do carriers have?

More than the spot-to-contract spread of the past six months would suggest. Idle capacity is thinner than in early 2024, after a year of alliance pruning, slow steaming and idle-vessel returns. Bunker prices crept higher through the spring. And demand on intra-Asia and Asia-Europe has been the surprise story of the quarter, keeping vessels off the transpacific that carriers might otherwise have cascaded back into Pacific rotations.

Put bluntly: the room for a carrier-friendly GRI next month runs wider than at any point since the post-Covid peak. Whether they use it is a different matter.

Xeneta's analysts, who track the spot-and-contract split more closely than most, will weigh those inputs against the SCFI, the Freightos FBX and their own XSI. Their read on how much of the tariff relief actually reaches US import prices — and how much gets swallowed at the dock gate — will set the tone for the mid-year contract season.

They'll also watch how the alliances rebalance capacity into the third quarter. Any sign of new vessel orders, scrapped tonnage or a reshuffle between Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance would shift the calculus again.

What does this change for shippers?

It changes the math on every RFP still on the table. A contract negotiated in the soft window of late 2024 and early 2025 will look reasonable in August if a 1 June GRI lands clean. It will look regrettable if carriers blink and roll the increase into a later sailing.

The transpacific will be the first place this shows up. Watch the SCFI Monday print, the LA/Long Beach dwell time, and whether the alliances add or cut sailings into July. Even modest per-FEU swings will compound quickly for anyone running a year-round programme out of Shanghai or Yantian.

Forwarders face the familiar bind. They have to advise clients on whether to lock in the contract now or wait for a softer spot. Neither bet is safe with the tariff picture still in motion and the carriers' pricing decisions still unmade.

So the answer, for now, is: ask Xeneta. The rest of us will find out the same way shippers always do — at the booking window. The only safe assumption is that the gap between spot and contract rates will widen before it narrows.