Supply Chain Dive has published a market brief identifying three factors it expects to drive the global air cargo market through the second half of the year, even as carriers and forwarders navigate softer yields and shifting belly capacity.

The trade publication rolled out the analysis under the headline "3 factors that may shape the air cargo market in H2," framing a focused look at the supply and demand variables that could move tonnage, pricing and route decisions through December.

Why does the H2 window matter for air cargo?

The second half is the heaviest stretch on the air freight calendar. Holiday retail, year-end tech launches and the northern hemisphere's flu and vaccine shipping cycle stack on top of base e-commerce, pharmaceutical and auto flows. Disruptions in that window tend to echo into early the following year.

Winter schedules get filed in the late summer. That's when carriers and integrators lock in route counts, frequencies and freighter deployment well before peak season hits. Decisions made in the next eight to ten weeks will frame how much tonnage the market absorbs and at what price.

What kind of forces typically move air cargo?

Industry outlooks tend to cluster around three categories: macroeconomic demand signals, fuel and operating cost trajectories, and capacity deployment from both dedicated freighters and passenger bellies. Policy and geopolitics sit on top of that stack.

Trade restrictions, export controls and sanctions regimes can reroute flows overnight. Tension across major corridors — the South China Sea, the Red Sea shipping tie-ins, the Russia-Europe air space — reshapes routings and cost structures whenever headlines shift. Each escalation or detente reshuffles the lane map.

Air cargo entered H2 after a first half that saw yields normalize from the post-pandemic highs of 2021 and 2022. Spot rates on key trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe corridors have drifted lower as passenger networks restored belly capacity faster than demand grew. The market now operates in a tighter, more traditional band — still rate-sensitive, but no longer the outlier it was three years ago.

Who sets the tone on capacity?

The big cargo carriers and integrators do, with their published schedule updates and capacity commentary. Cathay Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, Lufthansa Cargo and the integrator majors all signal forward intent through their winter program rollouts. Forwarders track those signals closely.

Belly capacity is the swing variable. Passenger network changes pull belly capacity with them, often at a different pace than dedicated freighter deployment. That mismatch is where most pricing volatility lives.

What should shippers and forwarders be watching?

Forwarders with heavy trans-Pacific exposure should track weekly tonnage reports from the major integrators and any capacity commentary from the big cargo carriers. Pricing on the Hong Kong-Europe and Shanghai-LAX corridors tends to lead the broader market, with both lanes serving as early indicators of where yields are heading.

Time-sensitive shippers in automotive, pharma and high-tech are less worried about whether capacity exists than whether it can be locked at predictable rates. Supply Chain Dive's H2 read lands at a moment when that question is back on every procurement desk, and the answers will likely move by the month.

Expect Supply Chain Dive's three factors to set the conversation as peak season gets closer.