Russia could bring 80% of its Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain terminal capacity back online within weeks if a ceasefire halts mutual attacks, a Reuters analysis of industry data showed Friday.

The remaining 20% — three of nine major terminals — suffered heavy damage in Ukrainian strikes and could remain offline for months, according to the analysis, which drew on four sources familiar with terminal operations.

How much of the trade lane is actually working?

Before the attacks, the Black Sea and Sea of Azov corridor handled up to 70% of Russia's grain exports. The region now sits on roughly 67 million tons of annual terminal capacity, Reuters found. Of that, terminals with about 53 million tons of combined capacity are currently idle because of security risks, not structural damage, and could resume loading once the threat picture clears.

The three damaged facilities are not a marginal loss. They account for roughly one-fifth of the region's grain-loading capacity.

Which terminals are out, and for how long?

• NKHP, Novorossiysk: annual capacity 7.1 million metric tons. Hit on August 12. A conveyor gallery collapsed onto an adjacent road. "At NKHP, that conveyor gallery was completely destroyed. It actually collapsed onto the road and was lying across it," a Novorossiysk source told Reuters. The operator says repairs will take up to four months; one source said staff were sent home for six.
• ZTKT, Taman: annual capacity 5.5 million tons. Hit on July 30. Unable to load grain; resumption date unclear.
• Taganrog (Sea of Azov): combined with Taman, the two facilities account for 6.7 million tons of annual capacity. Operations halted; full damage assessment not yet possible.

The other two Novorossiysk terminals — KSK and NZT — suffered minor damage and are ready to resume, the same source said.

What is the diplomatic track?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is leading an effort by grain-importing nations to restore Black Sea trade. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Friday that India, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries are also involved. The Kremlin confirmed diplomatic contacts and said Russia is routing grain through alternate channels in the meantime.

What does it mean for shippers and carriers?

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. Disruption from the attacks has lifted global grain prices and revived food-security concerns tied to the war. A ceasefire would put roughly 53 million tons of capacity back into the market quickly — a swing factor for FOB wheat prices out of Novorossiysk, vessel availability in the Black Sea, and forward freight on key importing lanes into Egypt, Turkey, and South Asia.

The damaged terminals tell a slower story. NKHP alone, at 7.1 million tons a year, ranks among Russia's three largest grain facilities. A four-to-six-month outage there shifts several million tons of annual export tonnage to competing basins, primarily the Baltic and the Caspian.

What to watch next

Whether Erdoğan's diplomatic push yields a halt to strikes, and how quickly NKHP, ZTKT, and the Taganrog terminal move from damage assessment to active repair, will set the trajectory for Black Sea grain flows into Q1 2026.