Riyadh's outbound international air cargo capacity has fallen by a third in 24 hours, after attacks on Saudi airports this week pushed airlines to suspend services and stripped both freighter lift and bellyhold space from the market.

Rotate data captured this morning shows outbound capacity on freighters and widebody passenger aircraft at Riyadh down 34% over 24 hours, to 848 tonnes. The 72-hour comparison is barely better: down 26% against the equivalent period a week earlier.

The freighter fleet is pulling back too. Freighter-only capacity out of Riyadh fell 10% outbound.

What does this mean for shippers?

A capacity cut this deep, this fast, hits shippers on two fronts. First, less lift means less space to book — and that applies whether cargo moves on a dedicated freighter or in the belly of a passenger widebody. Second, suspended passenger services take bellyhold capacity with them, and that space does not come back until airlines judge the security situation has stabilised.

The timing compounds the problem. Peak season is looming, when demand for air freight out of the Gulf typically tightens and rates firm. Shippers with commitments ex-Riyadh now face a thinner market precisely when volumes should be climbing.

Forwarders will be working the phones. Options include rerouting cargo through other Gulf gateways where capacity remains, but that adds transit time and cost, and every shipper in the region will be chasing the same alternative lift.

What happens next?

For carriers, the commercial calculus is blunt: no operator wants aircraft and crews in a threat environment, and suspensions will hold until assessments change. The 848-tonne outbound figure is the number to watch — any further slide signals more suspensions; a recovery signals airlines returning.

With attacks this fresh and airlines still reassessing, capacity out of Riyadh looks set to stay tight into the peak, and rate pressure will follow the tonnage.