PCTC orderbook-to-fleet ratio hits 26% as capacity risk builds

By James Calloway

Intermodal counted 82 pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs) contracted in the first nine months of 2026, against just nine vessels ordered in all of 2025. The Greek brokerage compared the surge with a 10-year annual average of 35 ships and said the orderbook-to-fleet ratio had risen to 26%, well above its historical average of 14%.

How much capacity is coming?

That ratio points to substantial growth in carrying capacity over the coming years. Shippers could eventually gain more vehicle slots, while vessel owners face lower utilization and weaker pricing if exports fail to keep pace. Carriers are already using more blanked sailings to bolster freight rates, removing effective capacity when charter demand eases.

The immediate fleet plan at CMA CGM points in the same direction. CMA CGM boss Rudolphe Saade said in an interview with Lebanon’s L’Orient-Le Jour that the French line targets 21 PCTCs in the coming years. Its 3PL arm, CEVA Logistics, currently operates 11 PCTCs.

What is keeping charter rates high?

Chinese vehicle exports totaled 8.2 million units in the first nine months of 2026, up 66% year on year, Intermodal said. That export push has kept ships fixing at $95,000 per day, near the levels last seen in 2024.

The $95,000 daily rate supports owner earnings but raises the cost of open-market tonnage for shippers and forwarders, limiting the immediate relief that the larger future orderbook might eventually offer.

Subdued domestic demand and intense price competition pushed Chinese manufacturers toward overseas buyers, Intermodal said. Domestic NEV sales fell 9.4% year on year, reinforcing manufacturers’ reliance on exports to absorb production.

Long-haul shipments, especially from China to Europe and Latin America, lifted car-mile demand. Limited backhaul cargoes and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope lengthened voyages and tied up vessel capacity, supporting day rates even as the fleet expanded.

When can the new ships arrive?

Intermodal said the immediate supply impact should remain limited because 64% of the orderbook, measured by tonnage, is scheduled for delivery from 2028 onward. That backloaded calendar gives carriers and charterers time to work with the current fleet before the largest wave arrives.

Carriers can use that window to blank more sailings and defend rates. If vehicle exports keep pace with deliveries, the ships could support longer trade lanes; if demand lags, owners face lower utilization, and charter rates would come under pressure from excess tonnage.

What could EU quotas change?

In October 2026, the European Union and China reportedly reached a preliminary understanding on proposed restrictions covering Chinese-built conventional and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The proposed four-year arrangement could take effect in December, subject to formal implementation.

Annual imports under the proposal would start at a cap of 350,000 units, with the quota increasing 6% each year. Battery-electric vehicles would remain subject to separate EU anti-subsidy duties.

Intermodal said: “Against projected Chinese hybrid imports of around 800,000 units in 2026, these measures could significantly constrain shipment growth along the China-Europe corridor. The impact on car-mile demand will largely depend on manufacturers’ ability to redirect exports to alternative markets.”

The gap between the 350,000-unit cap and projected 800,000 hybrid imports makes China-Europe the central demand risk for PCTC owners, according to Intermodal. Shippers tied to Chinese vehicle supply would see shipment growth constrained, while forwarders would need to rebuild cargo plans around alternative export markets.

Will automakers need less charter tonnage?

Chinese automakers BYD and SAIC Motor are expanding their own shipping fleets, potentially reducing their reliance on vessels chartered in the open market. Intermodal said this could further alter demand for third-party tonnage even if China’s overall vehicle exports continue growing.

Owners cannot therefore treat China’s 8.2 million-unit export figure as a direct measure of open-market demand. Carriers and forwarders may see less third-party cargo from automakers that carry their own ships; how much export growth remains in the charter market will depend on those companies’ fleet decisions and the destinations manufacturers choose.

The pressure point is 2028, when 64% of the ordered tonnage is scheduled for delivery. Rates, formal EU implementation and automakers’ use of owned ships will determine whether that wave supports trade growth or creates an oversupply problem for vessel owners.