Container shipping spot rates closed 2025 with a modest upward tick in the final week of December, while air cargo spot indicators faded from their late-November and mid-December peak, according to the December 30 weekly market update from Freightos.

The dual-direction read is the story of the week for shippers and forwarders closing their books on the year. Ocean firmness heading into the first week of January contrasts with the air market's reversion to non-peak conditions following weeks of holiday-driven tightness.

What the ocean uptick reflects

The Freightos update captures a directional move higher on the platform's ocean benchmarks as 2025 draws to a close. The uptick comes after an extended period of container shipping weakness in 2025, during which transpacific and Asia-Europe spots traded well below the elevated levels recorded in earlier rounds of the post-Red Sea cycle.

Carriers continue to use blank sailings and vessel idling to manage capacity ahead of the Lunar New Year shipping window, a period when shippers traditionally pull forward manufacturing volumes out of China and other Asian export hubs. That capacity discipline is the lever behind the year-end firming the index now registers.

For forwarders operating on annual ocean contracts signed during the soft summer and autumn months of 2025, the late-year spot uptick is unwelcome news. NVOCCs and BCOs holding contracts priced near the year's lows now face a widening spread between contract and spot benchmarks heading into the 2026 negotiation cycle.

Air peak unwinds

The air cargo side of the Freightos update tells the opposite story. Spot air rates, which climbed through November and into early-to-mid December as e-commerce shippers and time-sensitive forwarders pushed urgent cargo ahead of Christmas and New Year retail deadlines, have begun to recede.

Capacity that integrators drove near peak volume through the holiday cycle eased as the demand surge ran its course. Forwarders and air cargo buyers can now expect available lift on transpacific and Asia-Europe passenger and freighter services as the peak season winds down.

For integrators and time-sensitive forwarders, the fade signals a return to operational normalcy after a peak season in which ad hoc charters ran at premiums and capacity was rationed.

What it means for commercial teams

Late-year rate divergence between modes is unusual enough to warrant attention from procurement teams closing out 2025 budgets and prepping 2026 tenders. The year-end ocean firming, if sustained into January, will elevate the reference floor against which new contract bids get measured. The air fade reduces pressure on air freight budgets but does not by itself signal a structural shift in air pricing.

Shippers should expect continued volatility in the first weeks of 2026, with ocean rates tracking carrier capacity decisions through Lunar New Year and air rates responding to any new demand pull-forward events as Chinese factories ramp after the holiday.

What's ahead

The Freightos Baltic Index and the platform's air cargo reference rates remain the principal market read for shippers and forwarders without proprietary benchmarking. The first Freightos update of 2026, covering the week ended January 6, will indicate whether ocean firming holds, whether carriers add or withdraw capacity, and whether any demand catalyst emerges in the post-holiday period.