Northern Sea Route Transits Top All of 2025 by End of September

Commercial transits through Russia's Northern Sea Route passed the full-year 2025 total before the end of September, with combined deadweight tonnage already 26% ahead of last season's figure.

Vessels completing transits through the NSR had logged roughly 7.8 million tons of deadweight by Sept. 30, against 6.2 million tons for all of 2025, according to CHNL's analysis of AIS data from MarineTraffic by Kpler. The center puts the final 2026 count near 150 transits and more than 4.5 million tons of cargo. Those numbers can still move: as of Sept. 30, another 45 potential voyages were underway or inside the NSR area and could still qualify.

What does this change for shippers?

For now, mostly optionality. The NSR is still dominated by Russian energy flows rather than competing head-on with Suez. But four international Asia-Europe container transits had been completed by end-September, versus one in the entire 2025 season. That's a small base. It's also a fourfold jump.

The concrete sailings matter more than the trend line:

• Panstar Acro reached the United Kingdom from South Korea.
• Dubai Tower arrived in the UK from China.
• Riyadh Mukaab sailed from China to Felixstowe.
• Bulker Nan Xin 27 completed a voyage from China to Klaipede, Lithuania.

Tankers still carry the route

Tankers remain the biggest cargo segment on the route. CHNL counted 22 eastbound tanker voyages carrying an estimated 2.1 million tons, mostly crude oil. Murmansk led as the departure port, followed by Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The pattern is clear: the NSR functions first as a conduit for Russian oil moving from Baltic terminals toward Asian buyers.

Bulk carriers posted substantial activity too. Thirteen eastbound voyages carried an estimated 1.1 million tons of cargo, while 27 westbound trips reflected heavy repositioning of tonnage toward the Baltic, Murmansk and other western destinations. The NSR, in other words, works both as a cargo corridor and as a seasonal highway for moving ships between operating regions.

Ice dictated the season's shape

Ice conditions bent the traffic pattern in August. In the first half of the month, significant volumes diverted north of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, bypassing the conventional Vilkitsky Strait passage. Conditions eased later in August, letting traffic return to the traditional route as open water expanded. By early September, a more continuous open-water corridor stretched across much of the NSR.

Late-season ice behaved better than in 2024 and 2025, when early freeze-ups cut navigation short. This year, open water persisted beyond Sept. 30. CHNL still expects seasonal ice to progressively shut out vessels without ice-class capability from mid-October onward.

The forward view

The growth story is real but narrow. Russian crude and seasonal repositioning drive the tonnage; international container interest, while quadrupling off a tiny base, remains a rounding error against Asia-Europe volumes moving via Suez. Watch whether the 45 pending voyages convert, and whether the four international box transits become a repeatable product rather than a seasonal experiment. If 2027 opens with scheduled Arctic container calls, the corridor conversation changes.