Norden is redirecting capital from tankers into dry cargo, judging that the tanker market is approaching a cyclical peak while dry bulk offers a more attractive balance of risk and reward.

The Danish operator, which runs vessels across both segments, has 41 newbuildings on order for delivery between 2026 and 2030, and chief executive Jan Rindbo says growing exposure to geopolitics makes tanker returns harder to forecast — even though earnings in the segment remain exceptionally strong.

"When I look at the strength of the market and look at the orderbook, I would say that the tanker market may be closer to a peak," Rindbo says.

A more cautious tanker stance

Newbuilding activity in tankers has accelerated and the orderbook has expanded significantly. Delivery slots at shipyards are stretching towards 2030 and, increasingly, 2031 — conditions that would normally signal a mature shipping cycle.

But traditional supply-and-demand indicators now tell only part of the story. Tanker trading patterns have become increasingly tied to geopolitical developments, which can shift earnings quickly and leave owners exposed to events beyond their control.

Norden's response is to lock in cover. "Our response to that is to de-risk the business, put ships out on longer-term charters, to not run such a big risk in a market that is very, very hard to call," Rindbo says.

"We think the risk-reward is now more favourable in dry cargo," he adds.

Rindbo stops short of calling the swollen orderbook an alarm bell. He argues structural changes in global trade are making this cycle different from previous ones — chiefly, the fragmentation of shipping itself.

One global fleet becomes many

Rather than functioning as a single global fleet, vessels are increasingly divided by where they can trade, which cargo they can carry and which regulatory or geopolitical restrictions apply to them. In tankers, European environmental rules pull certain vessels towards European business, while Middle East conflicts influence which owners will enter particular areas.

"The global fleet is breaking into smaller fleets, and that means that you overall have a less efficient utilisation of the global fleet," Rindbo says.

The commercial consequence is significant: a less efficient fleet requires more ships to move the same tonnage, lifting demand for capacity even without volume growth.

Rindbo sees this as more durable than any single conflict. Customers are diversifying suppliers to reduce dependence on individual countries. "Our customers are de-risking their supply chains, and that means that they are sourcing from different places," he says. "That leads to more complex supply chains, and that requires more shipping."

Dry bulk is not immune to geopolitical disruption, but Rindbo sees it as less directly exposed than tankers. He also points to the resilience of the world economy despite tariffs and political uncertainty. "The world economy is more resilient than I think most people believed it would be under the circumstances," he says. "The underlying tone for the world economy, for world trade, is actually quite positive."

AI as a cargo story, not just a software story

Technology is reinforcing Norden's dry cargo conviction. AI-driven investment in data centres, power grids and supporting infrastructure is generating demand for raw materials already in the company's cargo base — copper, nickel, manganese and ore — as well as for renewable energy components including wind turbine blades and large industrial batteries.

"There's one positive impact from just the cargo demand," Rindbo says.

Internally, Norden is applying AI to commercial and operational decisions rather than administrative cost-cutting. The company generates around $4bn in annual revenue and incurs roughly $3.5bn in voyage costs, and Rindbo frames the technology's value against that scale.

"For us, AI is about how we maximise the output of all the revenue and all the voyage costs, which is almost $7.5bn," he says.

The company uses AI to optimise vessel operations, including speeds, while generative AI suggests charterparty clauses to chartering managers. Rindbo expects no headcount reduction. "We don't think AI will lead to fewer people in Norden, but we think it will enable us to spend more time with customers," he says.

Flexibility as the allocation strategy

Norden's platform spans tankers and dry cargo, with vessel sizes running from capesizes down to multipurpose ships. That breadth lets management move capital as cycles diverge — today, more into dry cargo, less into tankers.

The discipline matters, Rindbo argues, because the industry's classic error is buying at the top. "Where the industry can go wrong is that now, where you are at elevated levels, maybe closer to peak cycle in some segments, you keep chasing yesterday's earnings by making investments in the current market," he says.

Single-sector owners with ageing fleets may have no choice but to order replacement tonnage at unattractive prices. Norden can shift instead.

Rindbo distinguishes between complexity that creates commercial options and complexity that slows decisions. Customer-facing teams hold significant decision-making authority within a defined risk framework. "We need to be mindful that in the organisation we are not building complexity in terms of our decision-making," he says.

The aim is to keep the speed of a smaller company while expanding the number of markets in which Norden can deploy capital. "We have teams that are empowered to make decisions," Rindbo says. "That means that we can continue to make quick decisions."

With tanker cover lengthening, dry cargo investment rising and 41 newbuildings arriving from 2026, Norden is positioning for a market it expects to reward optionality over concentration as the cycle matures.