By Marcus Bennett

Mexican plants exported 12,707 heavy-duty vehicles in September, a 144.6% surge from the 5,196 units shipped a year earlier, according to INEGI figures released through industry association ANPACT on October 9. Production more than doubled in parallel: 15,181 units left Mexican assembly lines, up 121.4% from 6,857 in September 2025.

The catalyst, by ANPACT's own account, sits north of the border. Rogelio Arzte, executive president of ANPACT, told an October news conference that U.S. customers are front-loading orders ahead of EPA emissions standards taking effect in 2027.

"The reason why production and exports are growing at the levels they are is precisely because the United States, our main trading partner, is currently undergoing this technology shift," Arzate said.

Note what that explanation implies: this is largely demand pulled forward, not a structural expansion. Once pre-buying exhausts itself — as Mexico's own domestic market demonstrated after its 2024 buying surge — the trajectory can reverse quickly.

Who is buying Mexican trucks?

The United States took 90,967 Mexican-built heavy-duty vehicles between January and September, up 9.6% year over year. That is 92.5% of Mexico's total heavy-duty exports of 98,394 units for the nine-month period, itself a 12% increase from 2025.

Canada is growing faster, if from a smaller base: shipments rose 47.6% year to date, and September alone saw 680 units cross the northern border — more than double the year-earlier volume. Colombia, Peru, Honduras and Guatemala also posted gains, while Chile, El Salvador, Ecuador and Costa Rica declined.

Total production for the first nine months reached 117,121 units, up 10.3%. Freight vehicles accounted for 114,443 of them. ANPACT reported no electric or natural gas heavy-duty vehicles produced or exported in September — the 2027 emissions pivot, so far, is running on diesel.

What is happening to Mexico's domestic market?

The export boom masks a weak home market. Retail sales fell 11.3% year over year to 2,980 units in September — the eighth consecutive month of decline. For the first nine months, retail sales are down 17.5% to 25,289 vehicles.

Tractor-truck sales were the weakest segment, falling 14% to 1,153 units in September. Other freight trucks rose marginally, up 0.5% to 1,378. Buses and passenger vehicles dropped 30.5% to 449 units.

Cristina Vázquez, coordinator of economic studies at the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA), said the market is still digesting 2024, when fleet operators accelerated purchases ahead of regulatory changes — pulling forward demand that would otherwise have landed in 2025 and 2026. She also cited U.S. trade policy uncertainty and the upcoming USMCA review as reasons carriers are deferring investment.

AMDA projects roughly 36,051 heavy-duty retail sales for full-year 2026, but Vázquez cautioned the result could fall short if purchasing stays subdued.

Can tariff relief change the picture?

ANPACT is pressing Mexican authorities for relief from U.S. tariffs on commercial vehicles and components as the USMCA review approaches. Arzate said the industry's preferred outcome is elimination of the Section 232 duties, though he acknowledged reduction is the more realistic near-term goal.

"In an ideal world, we should have zero tariffs," Arzate said.

The association also wants to preserve existing regional rules of origin, arguing manufacturers have already invested heavily to meet North American content thresholds.

On the domestic side, ANPACT is working with Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economy on fleet-renewal measures, including accelerated depreciation, financing guarantees, a proposed scrappage program, and incentives coordinated with development bank Nacional Financiera.

None of these programs is enacted yet. Until one is, Mexico's domestic demand outlook rests on hope rather than policy.

September 2026 at a glance

Metric	Sept. 2025	Sept. 2026	Change
Production	6,857	15,181	+121.4%
Exports	5,196	12,707	+144.6%
Wholesale sales	2,514	2,965	+17.9%
Retail sales	3,358	2,980	-11.3%

For shippers and cross-border carriers, the export surge signals a wave of new Class 8 equipment entering North American fleets ahead of the 2027 emissions deadline — capacity that could ease equipment tightness, before the pre-buy cliff and the USMCA review test whether the momentum holds.