The LTL rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index finished Q3 at 78.8% above its January 2018 baseline — an 11.9 percentage point jump year over year and a fresh record. The dataset is forecast to close Q4 at 82.5% above the benchmark, 14.7 points higher y/y.

That landed at a moment when shippers are absorbing double-digit fuel surcharges and carriers are pulling forward rate negotiations.

What's behind the per-pound moves?

Two engines drive it: diesel and pricing power. Fuel surcharges ran 79% higher y/y in September. Retail diesel climbed 31% y/y in July, 46% in August and 68% in September. Because LTL fuel mechanisms use a step function that widens as diesel rises, the surcharge math drops extra margin onto carrier P&Ls.

On top of that, carriers hold the upper hand. The TD Cowen-AFS report pins the per-pound climb on "continued regulatory action, carrier exits and fuel shocks" squeezing available capacity, plus cost inflation — wages, health insurance, liability insurance, maintenance — that has piled up across carrier balance sheets since 2018.

How are shippers and carriers reacting?

Large public carriers have locked in mid-single-digit contractual increases even through the soft part of the cycle. They're also pulling forward general rate increases. Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) installed a 7.1% GRI on July 6 — 120 basis points higher and three months earlier than its 2025 bump. That cadence, once 12 months, then 11, keeps moving up.

What does the math look like for shippers?

LTL cost per shipment fell 2.8% sequentially in Q3, but only because weight per shipment dropped 3.4%. Strip the weight out and rate per pound actually rose 0.6% sequentially and 7.6% y/y. Linehaul rates ticked up 1.2% sequentially even as length of haul declined 2.2%. Shippers pay more for less freight, moved less far.

What's different about the tonnage picture?

Tonnage across publicly traded LTL carriers inflected positive y/y in March and has accelerated since. Mid-quarter updates showed y/y gains in weight per shipment in July and August. XPO (NYSE: XPO) was the lone outlier — its SMB-heavy mix now runs lighter pallets but better margins.

The weight recovery reflects freight bleeding back from truckload as TL rates rise. It also tracks manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI printed 54.5 in September, with new orders at 55.3 — both in expansion territory every month this year.

What's the truckload picture?

The TL rate-per-mile component of the same index sat 19.7% above the January 2018 baseline in Q3 — 13.7 points higher y/y and 3.3 points above Q2. Q4 is projected at 23.4% above the benchmark, which would be 15.8 points higher y/y and the highest reading since Q1 2022.

What does this change for shippers?

Expect another GRI wave before year-end. Expect fuel surcharge tables to keep marching higher if diesel holds its September trajectory. AFS Logistics, a non-asset 3PL that manages over $11 billion in transportation spend, built this index with TD Cowen to track exactly that pressure.

Carriers will defend pricing into Q4. J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) reports Q3 results after Thursday's close — the first read on whether truckload capacity tightening keeps pulling freight back into LTL networks and what that means for contract renewals into 2026.