LNG bunker prices fell across all major hubs last week, with Singapore dropping $100/mt to $1,567/mt and Rotterdam sliding $68/mt to $1,420/mt, as gas benchmarks retreated on easing Middle East tensions and the tentative reopening of Strait of Hormuz transit.

The Baltics fell $70/mt to $1,525/mt, while Portugal recorded the sharpest regional decline, down $211/mt to $1,608/mt.

ARA: TTF pull drives second weekly decline

Rotterdam's LNG bunker price declined for the second consecutive week, and the driver was the front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas contract, Europe's benchmark gas price, which dropped roughly 2% over the week.

The TTF decline reflected "forecasts of warmer weather and expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East on progress in US-Iran talks," according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).

Greg Molnár, gas analyst at the International Energy Agency, attributed the fall to the "reemergence of negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz."

The diplomatic sequence matters here. During the United Nations General Assembly summit last week, Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz subject to conditions. US President Donald Trump rejected the proposal on Sunday. Officials from both countries then held separate talks with negotiators on Monday, reviving hopes of renewed efforts to end the conflict.

Hormuz traffic restarts — partially

Molnár noted that after a full stop in August, roughly 12 LNG carriers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz this month. Another 13 LNG carriers went dark — no signal — which could indicate they are preparing for the risky transit.

That partial resumption, combined with mild autumn weather across Central and Western Europe, has kept downward pressure on TTF, according to Mind Energy.

EU underground gas storage stood at 70.6% on 25 September, up from 69.3% a week earlier but still 14.6% below the year-earlier level, Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows.

Singapore: premium over ARA narrows

Singapore's LNG bunker price declined more sharply than ARA, narrowing its premium over the European hub to $147/mt from $179/mt a week earlier.

Singapore typically tracks the front-month NYMEX Japan/Korea Marker (JKM), which fell $1.70/MMBtu ($88/mt) to $25.82/MMBtu ($1,342/mt).

The JKM decline reflected a shrinking geopolitical risk premium as LNG tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran dialogue continued. Expectations of limited spot demand in Northeast Asia also weighed on prices, with buyers appearing to have made progress securing winter supplies, JOGMEC said.

"The decline followed indications that direct US-Iran discussions remained possible," said oil and gas analysts at research firm BMI.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, added that Asian LNG prices "were dragged lower by the fall in crude oil prices last week."

What it means for operators

For dual-fuel tonnage, the week's moves trim fuel budgets at both ends of the key Europe-Asia trades. Owners with LNG-fueled vessels bunkering in Singapore capture the steepest reduction, while the narrowing ARA-Singapore spread — now $147/mt — makes the routing economics between the two hubs less skewed than a week ago.

Orderbooks continue to signal long-term confidence in the fuel. Höegh Autoliners has ordered six LNG dual-fuel pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs) from China Merchants Heavy Industry's Jiangsu yard, and Luxembourg-based CLdN has placed an order for two LNG dual-fuel vessels with South Korean builder HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.

The near-term price trajectory hinges on two variables: whether LNG carriers keep transiting the Strait of Hormuz — and how many of the 13 dark vessels follow — and whether US-Iran talks produce durable de-escalation. Either development stalling would likely rebuild the risk premium now draining from TTF and JKM.