Global shipbuilding orderbook tops 2008 record at 226.1m cgt

Global shipbuilding’s orderbook reached 226.1 million compensated gross tonnes (cgt) in October, exceeding September 2008’s 225.5 million cgt record, according to Clarksons Research. Valued at approximately $700 billion, the backlog rose 24% over the previous year and reached three times its 2020 level.

What does the record mean for shippers?

The record headline does not represent a proportionate increase in fleet size. The orderbook equals 25% of the existing fleet by gross tonnage, against 53% 18 years ago, while its deadweight is lower at 601 million dwt versus 657 million dwt in 2008. Clarksons links that difference to a significant change in vessel mix.

Containerships now account for 31% of the orderbook by cgt, almost double their 2008 share, while gas carriers have risen from 5% to 15%. Bulkers have fallen from 31% to 17%, and alternative-fuel-capable ships represent 43% of the backlog, compared with 2% at the previous peak.

The future vessel mix therefore favors containerships and gas carriers over bulkers, with a much larger alternative-fuel-capable component. That points to more capacity for shippers and forwarders in container and gas trades as deliveries arrive, while carriers will face greater pressure to fill a larger pipeline.

Clarksons projects 64 million cgt of deliveries in 2027, 24% above this year’s estimated output and 18% above the previous production record of 55 million cgt set in 2010. Output could climb to 72 million cgt in 2028, 60% above 2025 levels, extending the production surge.

For carriers, those deliveries could materially expand available fleet capacity while increasing the need to fill new ships. Shippers may benefit from greater capacity as the fleet arrives, while forwarders must distinguish firm deliveries from headline orders because some 2027 and 2028 projects may slip.

How concentrated is the expansion?

China’s yards control 68% of the global orderbook, twice their 2008 share, and account for 60% of this year’s output. South Korea and Japan have slipped to 17% and around 8%, respectively, while six of the world’s ten largest yards by orderbook are Chinese.

Hengli, which restarted shipbuilding in 2022, has climbed to the top of the individual yard rankings with 485 ships on order. The emergence of new facilities at Yingkou and Nantong and the reopening of previously dormant yards illustrate the scale of China’s capacity expansion.

Affinity analysts wrote: “Nothing can take away from the objectively astounding reality of having sold close to 400 ships so far this year. No yard in history has ever even been close to that…”

They added: “And with so much money pouring in, expect to see even further investment from Hengli in capacity expansion to satisfy the insatiable demands of the market.”

Can the buildout absorb all this capacity?

Clarksons is tracking approximately 225 shipbuilding expansion projects worldwide, and China hosts more than three-quarters of them. The industry still has around 500 active builders, compared with roughly 1,000 in 2008, even as new facilities and reopened yards increase China’s production footprint.

BIMCO warned that slowing orders could leave China’s expanded yards underutilized. Banchero Costa expects some deliveries scheduled for 2027 and 2028 to slip into subsequent years.

For carriers, delays would defer the fleet additions represented by those orders; for shippers and forwarders, they would push back any easing of available capacity. The orderbook remains a forward signal, not a guarantee of 2027-28 vessel supply.

The record backlog points to a broad expansion, but its commercial effect depends on execution. If most ships arrive on schedule, shippers can expect more container and gas capacity; if ordering slows or projects slip, Chinese yards could run underused and carriers could miss part of the 72 million cgt 2028 output scenario.