German rail freight operators will absorb a 12.9% jump in track access charges in 2027 even after DB InfraGO decided not to fully exploit a court-sanctioned cost ceiling of €8.2 billion — and a preliminary filing for 2028 points to a further 14.3% increase.

The pricing outlook follows a German court ruling on 1 October that opened the way for DB InfraGO, the country's rail infrastructure manager, to raise its upper cost limit to €8.2 billion for 2027. The upper cost limit caps the maximum track access charge (TAC) level DB InfraGO can demand from operators, so a higher ceiling translates directly into higher costs for train operating companies.

The industry's reaction to the ruling was uniformly negative. Now DB InfraGO says it will stop short of the full ceiling.

How much lower is DB InfraGO going?

The infrastructure manager has requested "a significantly lower target revenue of €7.5 billion, which corresponds to a total price increase of 7.9%", it said in a statement.

The increase is spread unevenly across market segments:

• Rail freight: +12.9%
• Regional rail passenger transport: +7.7%
• Long-distance rail passenger transport: +5%

These figures could still come down, depending on the level of federal maintenance funding Berlin commits.

What does this mean for freight operators?

DB InfraGO's restraint offers freight operators little relief. On 1 October, German private rail freight association Die Güterbahnen said the decision would still produce a minimum price increase of 12.6% for the sector. The final figure now stands at 12.9%.

Factoring in declining subsidies, rail freight will pay 75% more in 2027 than in 2026: TACs rise from around €1.82 per kilometre to €3.17 per kilometre. For operators running dense schedules on the German trunk network, that swing turns track access from a manageable line item into a structural cost burden — and undermines the cost case for shifting cargo from road to rail at exactly the moment German transport policy is pushing modal shift.

How bad is 2028?

Potentially worse. DB InfraGO says it will submit its track access charge application for 2028 by the end of the week, with a preliminary target revenue of €8.588 billion.

The infrastructure manager frames the figure as precautionary, because the scope of maintenance funding and the total cost upper limit for 2028 are not yet known. But on paper, the application implies a further rail freight price increase of 14.3%.

What are operators saying?

The sector sees a cost spiral forming. "With each further price increase, the spiral of rising costs, declining traffic volumes, and poorer infrastructure utilization intensifies", said Oliver Smock, Senior Consultant at Die Güterbahnen.

Smock argued the fix has two stages. "Until a fundamental reform is implemented, a significant increase in track access charge subsidies is needed in the short term to limit the further decline of rail freight", he said. But subsidies are only a stopgap in his view: "such subsidies can only be a temporary solution until Germany follows the example of most European countries and ensures genuine stability and competitive track access charges with a reformed system. Even the Ministry of Transport cannot simply wait this situation out indefinitely."

What happens next?

The near-term variable is federal maintenance funding: every euro Berlin commits can trim the 2027 increase below the announced 7.9% blended level. The structural variable is reform of the TAC system itself, which most other European countries have already tackled to deliver stable, competitive charges.

With the 2028 application due within days at a preliminary €8.588 billion revenue target, German rail freight faces the real prospect of two consecutive years of double-digit charge increases — a trajectory that operators warn will keep shrinking volumes and eroding network utilisation.