Freightos has released a pricing strategy playbook aimed at shippers and forwarders weighing how to split ocean freight volume between the spot market and long-term contract rates — a decision that, in a volatile market, can swing annual container spend by double-digit percentages.

The guide, titled "Spot Rates vs Contract Freight Rates: Ocean Freight Pricing Strategy Playbook," arrives as the industry continues to digest the aftermath of two extreme pricing cycles: the pandemic-era boom that pushed spot rates on Asia–US and Asia–Europe lanes to record highs, and the subsequent collapse that left contract holders paying above market for months.

What does the playbook actually address?

At its core, the document frames the central tension in ocean freight procurement. Spot rates offer flexibility and the chance to capture falling markets, but expose shippers to sudden spikes — Red Sea diversions and port disruptions have historically sent spot indices up sharply within weeks. Contract rates lock in certainty and capacity guarantees, but can become a liability when the market turns down and shippers find themselves paying a premium over spot.

Freightos, which operates one of the most widely cited freight rate indices, positions itself as an authority on precisely this trade-off. The company's own data has documented how quickly the spread between spot and contract can open and close — which is why the playbook argues, in essence, that neither pure strategy wins in every cycle.

Why does this matter now?

The timing is commercial, not academic. Shippers negotiating annual transpacific and Asia–Europe contracts face a market in which rate direction remains contested. Carriers, having consolidated into three major alliances, retain the ability to manage capacity and support contract levels. Shippers, burned by both extremes of the last five years, are increasingly asked to justify their procurement mix to finance departments.

For forwarders, the calculus is sharper still. A forwarder holding fixed-price commitments to customers while buying on spot — or the reverse — carries direct margin risk on every shipment. The playbook's framework of deliberately balancing the two channels speaks directly to that exposure.

What is not said?

Notably, a strategy playbook is not a forecast. The document offers a decision framework, and shippers should read it as such; it does not, on its own, tell you where rates go next quarter. Freightos has an obvious commercial interest in shippers engaging with rate data and digital booking tools, and readers should weigh that context when the guide points toward data-driven, index-linked procurement.

The practical takeaway for shippers is nonetheless sound: define the share of volume that must be protected with contract certainty, keep a deliberate slice on spot for flexibility and market intelligence, and revisit the split as conditions shift rather than treating annual contract season as the only decision point.

Whether shippers act on it — and whether carriers' capacity discipline lets the strategy work — will show up in the next Freightos Baltic Index reading either way.