Express carriers face a widening gap between volume and profit

The global express and parcels market grew 5.8% in 2025 to €577.3 billion ($642.6 billion), according to Transport Intelligence’s Global Express & Parcels 2026 report. Transport Intelligence, known as Ti, forecasts €609.1 billion in 2026 and €760.1 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of about 5.7%.

Those headline numbers conceal the central commercial problem identified by Ti: rising shipment counts do not automatically produce higher profits. Its analysis cites pricing pressure, subdued B2B demand and a shift toward lower-cost services, especially in mature markets.

Which regions are driving growth?

Asia Pacific overtook North America as the largest regional market in 2024. Ti expects Asia Pacific to expand 8% annually from 2026 through 2030. North America should grow 4.1% and Europe 3.6%, while several major carriers in mature markets report declining revenue.

B2C generated 62.8% of global market value in 2025, and Ti forecasts 67.3% by 2030. Global parcel volumes should reach 432.5 billion by decade-end, with Asia Pacific accounting for 80.3% of global volume in 2025.

For shippers, B2C’s projected rise from 62.8% to 67.3% makes the premium for speed versus the price per parcel more important than global growth alone. Asia Pacific’s 8% annual growth forecast offers volume, but mature markets require carriers to defend revenue against lower-priced offers.

What is DHL Express seeing on major lanes?

DHL Express said international cross-border express, particularly time-definite services, remained a growth engine for the group. The premium proposition did not suit every B2C shipment, although the company reported continued strong volumes into Europe and an uplift in shipments to Latin America.

DHL linked the Latin American increase to retailers adjusting their strategies after the removal of the US de minimis exemption for low-value packages. Asia-US B2C volumes initially fell following the change and then partially recovered, leaving the lane sensitive to policy and retail shifts.

Under Strategy 2030, DHL identified 22 markets with above-average growth potential, including Vietnam, Thailand, Poland, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil and India. The company linked those opportunities to near-shoring, supply-chain diversification and investment.

For shippers and forwarders, DHL’s 22-market list signals the carrier’s growth priorities. It also sharpens the service trade-off: time-definite express can command a premium when speed and reliability matter, but its economics do not fit every consumer parcel.

Can rising parcel volume become profitable growth?

Ti’s report author Paul Chapman said: “The global parcels market continues to grow, but this masks increasingly divergent performance among operators, particularly in mature markets where pricing pressure, subdued B2B demand, and the shift towards lower-cost services are weighing on revenues.”

He said established carriers must convert rising parcel volumes into profitable growth amid intensifying competition and the expansion of in-house delivery networks. For DHL and its peers, the test is yield and cost discipline rather than parcel count alone.

DHL Express also emphasized yield and cost management, arguing that customers continue to pay for speed, reliability, security and customs expertise. A company spokesperson said: “One area where we have seen a significant increase is in heavier-weight goods, with customers that previously might have favoured a forwarding-air cargo solution choosing DHL Express.”

The company said some customers that previously might have favoured a forwarding-air cargo solution now choose DHL Express. The spokesperson cited guaranteed uplift and capacity, reduced time for inventory in transit, reliable end-to-end delivery, visibility, and transparent, predictable pricing.

For forwarders, the reported shift shows that integrated express can capture heavier freight when assured capacity and end-to-end control outweigh a stand-alone air-cargo arrangement. Shippers gain another option when guaranteed capacity and shorter inventory transit time carry more weight than a conventional forwarding solution.

What do consolidation and AI change?

Consolidation is gathering pace alongside the volume race. Ti tracked 136 mergers, acquisitions and investment transactions between May 2023 and August 2026, including the FedEx-Advent consortium’s €7.8 billion agreement to take InPost private.

For shippers, that transaction count points to greater concentration among the carriers and parcel networks they use for delivery. Ti did not quantify any resulting change in rates, capacity or service levels, leaving those commercial effects uncertain.

Automation is moving beyond the pilot stage. Ti identified 34 artificial-intelligence use cases in express and parcels, and 24 had already entered operations, although the report attached no quantified margin benefit to those deployments.

Ti expects the divide between volume growth and profitable growth to remain the sector’s defining challenge. As the firm forecasts global market value at €760.1 billion by 2030, pricing discipline and defensible capacity, rather than parcel counts alone, will determine whether the expansion creates durable returns.