Evergreen and Premier Alliance rejoin Suez transits as full carrier return looms

Evergreen will send the 16,556 teu Ever Eon and Ever Edit through the Suez Canal eastbound on 7 and 11 November, joining an industry-wide rush back to the waterway that is already dragging Asia-Europe rates down.

The Taiwan-based operator is following its Ocean Alliance partners back to the canal, according to Linerlytica's report today. A third vessel, the 20,124 teu Ever Gifted, transits on 16 November on the alliance's MD2 Mediterranean service.

The Premier Alliance is next. Its Asia-Mediterranean 1 (MD1) service resumes Suez crossings next month, with Yang Ming's 11,714 teu YM Trust departing Ningbo on 13 November. South Korea's HMM joins its partners in the move.

What does the revised MD1 look like?

The new rotation calls at Ningbo, Shanghai, Shekou, Singapore, Sokhna, Suez Canal, Damietta, Ambarli, Izmit, Mersin, Damietta, via Suez, Singapore, Kaohsiung and Ningbo. Sokhna is a new call, added to capture Asia-Red Sea cargo.

The shorter loop turns in 84 days and deploys 12 ships of 11,700 to 14,000 teu from Yang Ming — four fewer vessels than the 16 required on the current Cape of Good Hope routing. That arithmetic is the commercial heart of the story: every Suez return releases tonnage into a market where supply growth already outpaces demand growth.

HMM's spokesperson told The Loadstar the carrier had assessed the risks before committing. She said: "This matter was decided and agreed upon from a Premier Alliance perspective, following a comprehensive review of market conditions and safety aspects."

Who is left on the Cape?

Linerlytica's projection is blunt: "All three main carrier alliances, along with MSC, are set to make a full return to the Suez by Q1 27, leaving Zim as the only main carrier left on the Cape route." The Israeli carrier's continued diversion is widely read as a function of its nationality rather than pure economics.

The Gemini Cooperation partners, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have also signalled full Suez resumption by Q1 27 and have launched a new Asia-Mediterranean service that transits the canal.

The industry abandoned Suez in late 2023 after the Houthis began attacking vessels in response to Israel's conflict with Palestine. Vessel capacity constraints and competitive pressure, following a temporary easing of regional security risks, have now reversed that calculation — though "temporary" is doing heavy lifting in that sentence, and no carrier is publicly pricing the risk of a renewed attack campaign.

What happens to rates?

The 1 November price hikes on Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trades failed to gain traction, and Linerlytica expects further rate declines in the coming weeks as shortened sailing times add effective capacity. Shippers holding space on these lanes should treat any proposed general rate increase with skepticism.

Carriers are chasing a brighter spot: Shanghai-Persian Gulf rates are rising, and lines are adding Red Sea calls to capitalise.

Evergreen relaunches its China-Red Sea OGRD service on 12 November, timed to coincide with its Suez resumption. The loop calls at Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Shekou, Singapore, Jeddah, Sokhna, Aqaba, Jeddah, Port Klang and Qingdao, turning in 56 days. Initial deployment is modest: four ships of 7,000-9,000 teu on a fortnightly basis, starting with the 7,024 teu Ever Superb at Qingdao. A fortnightly cadence on a 56-day rotation signals a trial, not a commitment.

MSC has gone further, extending its Far East-Indian subcontinent Shikra service to Khor Fakkan in the UAE and Oman's Sohar port. The first Khor Fakkan call came on 18 October, when the 24,346 teu MSC Micol called under the new rotation: Dalian, Xingang, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Nansha, Singapore, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Dalian.

The extended service turns in 15 weeks using up to 15 ships of 14,000-24,000 teu, with the largest calling at western Indian ports as well as Khor Fakkan and Sohar. Those vessels face severe delays, especially at Khor Fakkan, where waiting times to berth exceed two weeks. High Middle East demand is funding that patience for now.

What comes next?

With canal transits multiplying and released tonnage swelling supply on Asia-Europe lanes, the trajectory through Q1 27 points to continued rate erosion — unless regional security deteriorates again and sends the fleet back around the Cape.