Ethiopian Airlines carries 35% of Africa's airfreight, and no rival is close. Kenya Airways and Royal Air Maroc manage 25% between them. That gap frames the battle now underway for the continent's cargo traffic — a market where goods travelling between two African countries still spend three to five days in transit, usually via a stopover in Europe or the Middle East.

The absurdity is structural. Africa's air network was designed by colonial-era bilateral agreements to link African capitals to European metropolises, not to each other. The Single African Air Transport Market, signed by 38 states, was supposed to fix that. Implementation remains, charitably, hesitant.

What does this actually cost shippers?

“Rates are extremely high, unaffordable for many exporters,” said Cathy Kayitesi, Sales Director at Africa Global Logistics. “Many turn to sea freight and only use air freight as a last resort, for perishable, special, or high-value products.”

So the continent's exporters already vote with their wallets. Airfreight is the exception, not the rule, and the fleet compounds the problem: many aircraft flying intra-African routes are over thirty years old, with breakdowns frequent enough to make transit times a gamble.

“Connections remain a major challenge,” Kayitesi added. “In the absence of direct flights, goods must transit through external hubs before reaching their final destination.” In plain terms, a consignment from Abidjan to Lusaka may touch down in Paris or Dubai first. That's not a supply chain. It's a detour with paperwork.

Two models, one bottleneck

The competing strategies are easy to sort. Aglow Air is betting on ATR freighters across short-haul West African routes — a niche play. Kenya Airways Cargo and TAAG are building regional hubs in Nairobi and Luanda to capture long-haul traffic and, eventually, to compete with the Gulf hubs themselves.

Aviation expert Samba Thiam pinpointed where the gap is widest: “the most underserved routes are between West Africa and Southern and Central Africa: Abidjan-Luanda, Accra-Lusaka, Dakar-Nairobi.” He credits TAAG with moving fastest, via its North-South corridor and new routes to Lusaka, Abidjan and Accra. Kenya Airways Cargo remains the anchor for East-West and Horn of Africa connections, though traffic from Europe and the Gulf sometimes bypasses Nairobi entirely.

The regulation problem sits underneath all of it. “Governments continue to block traffic rights, particularly fifth freedom rights, to protect their often underperforming national airlines,” Thiam said. Protectionism, in other words, protects very little.

Infrastructure doesn't help. More than half of African airports lack proper cargo facilities, warehouses or cold-chain infrastructure — a direct hit to perishables, the segment that most needs to fly.

The capacity numbers behind the race

Ethiopian's dominance is not accidental. Its cargo capacity grew from 266,000 tonnes in 2016 to 715,000 tonnes in 2023 — nearly a tripling in seven years. It operates 16 freighters today and targets 37 by 2035. Kenya Airways Cargo claims an annual capacity of 380,000 tonnes and is reinforcing Nairobi accordingly.

The challengers:

• Abidjan — a serious contender as West Africa's gateway, with potential for 25 to 35 new routes and an estimated 25-30% fare reduction through competition.
• Luanda — geography is its pitch: the crossroads of Southern Africa, South America and Europe.
• Air Algérie/Tassili — a consolidating state-owned model, still another path to the same goal.

Demand is not the question

The demand side looks robust. Trade expert Justin Nbeye noted that China-Africa trade hit a record US$348 billion in 2025. Zero-tariff treatment extended to all African countries is boosting agricultural exports — coffee, flowers, fresh fruit — while e-commerce platforms like Temu and SHEIN are growing at over 20% a year. That's sustained, airfreight-hungry volume.

Pharmaceuticals, industrial freight and mining add promise, but they're demanding segments. Cold chain and reliability are entry requirements, and as noted, over half the continent's airports can't currently meet them.

What changes for shippers and forwarders?

In the short term, not much. Direct intra-African capacity remains thin, rates stay high, and routing via external hubs persists. The medium-term wins come if TAAG's North-South corridor and Abidjan's route expansion materialise — a quarter-to-third fare reduction would shift real volume from sea back to air.

For carriers, the lesson from Ethiopian is unglamorous but clear: freighters, cold-chain investment and direct routes compound. For governments, the choice is between protecting national carriers and enabling the traffic rights that would let African airfreight actually serve Africa.

Whether SAATM's 38 signatories move from signature to enforcement will decide whether this market stays a detour or becomes a network.