EU tariffs on e-commerce packages introduced in early July triggered a sharp correction in European e-commerce airfreight volumes — and Emirates SkyCargo expects that correction to be temporary, not structural.

The carrier reads the dip as an echo of previous disruptions rather than a reversal in demand. E-commerce volumes on European lanes had grown steadily for 12 to 18 months before the tariff change hit. Now, Emirates says, traffic is set to normalise gradually as markets absorb the regulatory shock and resume its upward trajectory in the near term.

The pattern is consistent across the past three to four years, in the carrier's reading: periodic corrections reflect specific external events, never a fundamental change in demand.

Where is Emirates putting capacity instead?

Liège is emerging as the answer. Jeffrey Van Haeften, SVP Cargo Commercial Worldwide at Emirates SkyCargo, said the Belgian airport has become a key European gateway alongside Frankfurt and Amsterdam.

"Over the years, we have seen that Liege has emerged as a strong gateway with good capabilities for handling diverse cargo, offering a good additional network point in addition to other European hubs such as Frankfurt and Amsterdam," Van Haeften said.

The interest is not purely e-commerce. Liège also works as a launch point for pharmaceutical flows toward North America. "We also see the advantage of Liege as a gateway to cargo moving towards North America — pharma to Chicago, for example," Van Haeften said.

Liège sits inside a network of more than 150 gateways across six continents, moving everything from South American flowers and perishables to Indian and European pharmaceuticals and Asian high-tech manufacturing output.

How does the freighter-plus-bellyhold model work?

The strategy rests on combining dedicated freighters with passenger bellyhold capacity routed through Dubai. Hong Kong shows the scale: more than 35 weekly freighter services from the key e-commerce origin market, plus multiple daily passenger connections.

"Rather than relying on a freighter service that may operate only once or twice a week, customers have access to multiple daily connection opportunities," Van Haeften said. "This combination of freighter and passenger capacity is particularly valuable in emerging markets."

The model serves markets too thin to support standalone freighter operations while adding frequency and routing options as volumes build. For e-commerce operators weighing speed and consistency, that flexibility increasingly drives supply chain decisions beyond Dubai's geographic advantage between East and West.

What happened to rates and yields?

Here the story tightens. FY 2025/26 brought sudden adjustments from tariffs, regulatory changes and shifting demand. When volumes fell on specific lanes — transpacific routes into the US most notably — carriers redirected capacity elsewhere, producing temporary oversupply and pressure on rates.

That pressure is now easing. As demand recovered on transpacific and European lanes, rate and yield pressures "is no longer the same," in Van Haeften's words.

"Volumes tend to correct and grow steadily over the longer term, and so this year you see that the demand into the transpacific routes and demand in Europe is once again back," he said.

Emirates cautions against reading broad industry conclusions from a single year of market performance, particularly one as disrupted as FY 2025/26. Volume growth, the carrier notes, does not automatically translate into immediate yield improvement.

Is e-commerce the whole story?

No — and Emirates is explicit about it. E-commerce drives air cargo capacity demand, but it is not the only consideration when the carrier invests in and deploys capacity. Decisions weigh multiple sectors and geographies: perishables, pharmaceuticals, high-tech goods.

That diversification matters commercially. Carriers overexposed to e-commerce lanes absorbed the shardest hits when EU tariffs landed in July and when transpacific volumes slid. Emirates' spread across commodities and its ability to shift freighter capacity between lanes softened the impact.

For shippers and forwarders, the message is capacity availability and routing options through Dubai remain broad, with Liège adding a European alternative to congested Frankfurt and Amsterdam — though how quickly European e-commerce volumes recover depends on how fast consumers and platforms adjust to the new tariff regime, something no carrier controls.