DHL lifts 2026 EBIT outlook past €7bn on heavyweight air push

DHL Group has raised its 2026 operating profit forecast to more than €7 billion ($7.8 billion), up from its earlier $7.3 billion outlook, betting on a "robust" peak shipping season and an express division that just printed a 49.5% profit jump.

The German logistics group (XETRA: DHL) said Friday it now expects EBIT above the $7.8 billion mark from core operations. Free cash flow guidance moved up too, from $3.37 billion to $3.6 billion. Capital expenditures will climb to roughly $4 billion, against a prior range of $3.4 billion to $3.7 billion.

That's a 6% haircut in reverse — the company added roughly half a billion dollars to its profit ceiling in one announcement. The money is going somewhere specific: last week DHL earmarked $450 million to expand its Central and Eastern European capabilities by 2030.

Where the profit actually came from

Group EBIT hit $1.92 billion in the third quarter, up 16% year over year. DHL Express did the heavy lifting — literally.

The express unit's adjusted operating profit rose 49.5% to $1.16 billion. The drivers were higher yields, continued cost efficiencies, and a deliberately pickier attitude toward freight: DHL has been favoring heavy airfreight, which commands better rates, over lightweight shipments moving on its in-house airline. Heavyweight air has been the division's point of emphasis all year.

The rest of the portfolio was more mixed.

• Global Forwarding: EBIT of $292 million, up a third year over year, excluding small one-time effects in 2025.
• Supply Chain: adjusted operating profit up 7.9% to $337 million.
• eCommerce: adjusted operating profit of $56.2 million, down from $198 million — though the prior-year quarter carried a one-time $138.2 million gain.
• Post & Parcel Germany: operating profit down 32% to $168.5 million.

Full third-quarter results land on Nov. 5.

What does this change for shippers?

Two things, practically. First, the yield story at Express means heavyweight airfreight customers should expect DHL to keep courting them — the division is making money precisely by charging more for denser cargo and saying no to low-yield volume. Lightweight parcel shippers may find capacity tighter and pricing firmer as a result.

Second, the capex bump signals DHL is building, not retrenching. The $450 million Central and Eastern Europe program, running through 2030, points to more warehouse and network capacity in a region where nearshoring demand keeps growing. Forwarders competing there will face a better-funded incumbent.

The mixed picture at home is worth noting. Post & Parcel Germany shed nearly a third of its operating profit, and eCommerce's underlying result is far smaller than last year's headline suggested once you strip the one-off gain. Group strength, in other words, is being manufactured in the air network, not on the German doorstep.

The upgraded guidance rests on one assumption DHL can't fully control: that the holiday peak delivers. If consumers spend and airfreight demand holds, the express yield strategy compounds. If it doesn't, the company has already banked a strong Q3 as insulation.