Containership charter rates hit four-year high despite record orderbook

By James Calloway

Braemar’s containership charter index reached 325.8, up 21% year on year and its highest level since autumn 2022, while fixtures from January 1 through October 17 fell 15% to 853. Fixed capacity over that period dropped 10% to 2.54 million TEU.

Some 63% of the ocean capacity deployed between the Far East and Europe has returned to the Suez Canal, while containership owners face a shortage of ships available for immediate employment.

Why are charter rates rising while freight rates fall?

Braemar attributes the apparent contradiction to a shortage of prompt tonnage. Owners secured long-term employment for vessels during 2024 and 2025, leaving charterers to seek ships further ahead.

Braemar said: "A few weeks back we showed a record orderbook and a 2028 delivery wave the size of the 2002 fleet. You would expect charterers to be sitting back and waiting. They are not."

On a capacity-weighted basis, charterers now fix ships an average of 7.8 months before delivery, compared with 6.8 months a year earlier.

For vessels of 3,000 TEU and above, the fixing lead time exceeds 10 months.

In the third quarter, half of fixtures covered ships delivering more than three months ahead, compared with 23% in the same period of 2025.

Charter costs have also diverged sharply from freight rates. The Freightos Baltic Index fell 61% between January and October 2025, while Braemar’s charter index rose 3%.

Braemar highlighted that, relative to freight rates, charter costs have run at roughly double their 2021-2024 average.

These figures leave shippers facing a falling freight benchmark but tighter access to promptly available ships. Carriers and forwarders arranging chartered tonnage are fixing ships earlier at costs that remain high relative to freight rates.

Which vessel segments and charterers are driving the market?

• Feeder and panamax ships of 1,500-1,900 TEU, fixed for nine to 15 months, command a median $28,625 per day, up 18% year on year. Recent 12-month fixtures have reached $36,500 per day.
• For 4,000-5,099 TEU vessels, fixtures fell 39%, while short-period rates rose to a median $58,000 per day from $51,000.
• Ships aged 20 years or more accounted for 30% of fixtures this year, up from 26% in 2025. A 20-year-old 1,700 TEU feeder earns a median $24,000 per day, while a panamax built in 1997 fixed at $50,000 per day in September.

Maersk has emerged as the busiest charterer, increasing fixtures by 14% and chartered capacity by 20%, even as the overall market contracted in both measures.

CMA CGM, last year’s leading charterer, cut its fixture count by 41%.

What does the 2028 delivery wave mean for rates?

Since January 2025, 94 fixtures covering about 570,000 TEU have involved newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2028.

That forward commitment forms part of a record orderbook and the delivery wave that Braemar compares with the size of the 2002 fleet.

Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach warned that the largest delivery wave on record, potential easing of Red Sea disruption and a forecast of weaker demand in 2027 could undermine charter rates.

"Charterers are queuing today. By 2028, owners may be the ones in the queue," Roach said.

For carriers and forwarders, fixing ships 7.8 months ahead provides access to scarce tonnage but increases exposure to softer 2027 demand. Owners retain stronger day-rate returns in the near term, but the 2028 balance could reverse that advantage.

Rates should remain supported while prompt tonnage stays scarce, but Braemar’s clearest downside risk is the arrival of the record 2028 fleet against weaker forecast demand and easing Red Sea disruption.