Congo caps cobalt at 96,600 tons as Indonesia eyes deeper nickel cuts

The Democratic Republic of Congo has capped cobalt exports at 96,600 metric tons a year for 2026 and 2027, while Indonesia is considering deeper nickel-ore quota cuts for 2027.

The two controls put battery-metal supply on a government calendar. Indonesia and the DRC dominate the market, and buyers of cells, cathode materials and stainless steel now face a planning problem: next year's metal supply depends on decisions in Jakarta and Kinshasa as much as on what the mines can produce.

Indonesia's quota is already moving

Indonesia's 2026 nickel-ore quota began at 260 million to 270 million metric tons, about one-third below the 379 million tons Indonesia approved for 2025. In October, Director General Tri Winarno approved a revision that Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), a Chinese metals price agency, initially put at about 290 million tons.

SMM's Nov. 4 reports put the revised allocation at 295 million to 300 million wet metric tons. That gave smelters more ore late in 2026 than the first allocation allowed, despite the government's stated concern about oversupply.

Early-November guidance pointed toward a tighter 2027. Cecep Mochammad Yasin, director of mineral business development at Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said reductions may go further than those made in 2026, according to SMM.

Yasin said quotas would reflect the optimal operating capacity of domestic smelters, not only their raw-material needs. Indonesia has announced no 2027 figure, so the direction is firmer than the size of the cut.

Septian Hario Seto, a member of Indonesia's National Economic Council, backed using annual work plans to cut nickel output. He argued that rising Indonesian production had added to global oversupply and pushed prices down, SMM reported from a Nov. 3 industry convention.

The mechanism matters. A larger late-2026 allocation can relieve near-term smelter feed constraints, but a tighter 2027 work plan can restrict the ore available for subsequent contracts. Buyers need monthly delivery schedules, not only the annual quota headline.

Kinshasa's cap works through exports

The DRC ended a months-long cobalt export ban in October 2025 before setting its 96,600-ton annual cap for 2026. The Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances' Markets, or ARECOMS, assigned 87,000 tons to a base allocation and 9,600 tons to a strategic export allocation reserved for the regulator.

The framework allows those figures to be adjusted. Exporters must prepay a 10% royalty before shipments clear customs. ARECOMS forfeits unused monthly allocations to the strategic quota, which the regulator said would support projects of national importance.

Glencore reported on Oct. 29 that its own-sourced cobalt output for January through September fell 52% to 13,700 tons from 28,500 tons in the same period of 2025. The company did not quantify how much of the decline came from each factor.

Glencore said the result reflected “the ongoing DRC cobalt export quota regime and a continued focus on copper production.” It also said some cobalt is now being retained in solution rather than processed into saleable hydroxide, with the value expected to be realized as export rules evolve.

The price signal has split from the production signal

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said cobalt prices fell during the third quarter as DRC-origin shipments increased and downstream buying remained weak. Cobalt hydroxide delivered to Asia dropped 31% to $17.25 per pound, while Chinese cobalt sulphate fell nearly 30%.

Senior price analyst George Ingall wrote: “The market fell into a stalemate, with sellers unwilling to transact below $20.00/lb.” The combination shows why a production cut does not automatically lift the benchmark price: available shipments can rise while battery demand remains soft.

For shippers and their freight partners, a quota is not a booked cargo volume. It is a government-controlled input that changes what suppliers can offer, and physical shipments still determine whether contracted material reaches a cathode, cell or stainless-steel plant on schedule.

What changes for nickel and cobalt buyers?

Quota changes reach buyers through suppliers' contracts. When ore or hydroxide availability shifts with a government decision, cathode and cell makers must determine whether they can keep delivering at the prices they promised and how much of the change they can pass through. Uneven cost pass-through has also strained supplier finances in other manufacturing chains this year.

Indonesia ties its nickel quota to smelter capacity and oversupply. Congo pairs its cobalt cap with prepaid royalties and a regulator-controlled reserve. Both governments now treat output and export limits as standing tools for managing prices rather than emergency measures.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said on July 16 that diversified mineral supply functions as economic insurance against major supply risks, in a statement accompanying the agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.

The next markers are administrative as much as geological:

• Indonesia's approval of 2027 work plans; no date has been announced.
• Any change to Congo's 96,600-ton cap or release of strategic-reserve volumes.
• Fourth-quarter price reviews, which will show whether quotas lift prices or weak battery demand absorbs the cuts.

For U.S. buyers, those decisions now sit beside the post-election critical-minerals calendar in Washington. The near-term test is whether tighter Indonesian work plans and Congo's export rules tighten physical availability enough to reverse third-quarter price weakness before weak battery demand absorbs the policy cuts.