Class 8 buyers face 2027 price hikes nobody can price yet

North American Class 8 net orders collapsed 45% year over year to 13,500 units in October, and the blame sits squarely on an EPA nitrogen oxide rule that still doesn't exist. Nobody — not Cummins, not Daimler, not the dealers — can say what a model-year 2027 truck will cost on Jan. 1. Only that it will cost more than a 2026 truck.

The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to send its final NOx rulemaking to the White House by mid-November for an expedited 30-day review, American Trucking Associations Vice President of Energy and Environmental Affairs Patrick Kelly said in an interview. Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey said Nov. 5 that the engine maker expects a final rule in December. Rush Enterprises CEO William "Rusty" Rush is less optimistic, telling investors Oct. 27 that the industry may wait until January or February.

What does the rule actually propose?

Everyone is working off a notice of proposed rulemaking issued in July. That followed EPA's March 2025 announcement that it would re-evaluate the 2022 Heavy-Duty Nitrogen Oxides rule, citing consumer choice and cost concerns.

The NPRM keeps the Biden-era requirement that heavy-duty NOx emissions fall to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour from 200 mg/hp-hr — a cut of roughly 83%. But manufacturers get wiggle room:

• Nonconformance penalties (NCPs) instead of immediate compliance
• Emissions-control warranties cut to 100,000 miles or five years, from 450,000 miles or 10 years in the original 2022 proposal
• The regulatory useful life increase postponed to 2030, with the mileage component lowered to 435,000 miles from 650,000

There could still be significant changes to the NPRM, Dan Potter, Daimler Truck North America's director of compliance and regulatory affairs, told reporters Sept. 24 at the company's High Desert Proving Grounds in Madras, Ore.

How much are the penalties?

Nobody knows. That's the honest answer, and it matters because several engine makers plan to pay rather than ship compliant engines on Jan. 1. Under the July proposal, a model-year 2027 engine certified at 100 mg/hp-hr would incur a $5,875 penalty; one certified at 45 mg/hp-hr would pay $904. The final sliding scale, its floor and its ceiling remain unrevealed.

Daimler Truck CEO Karin Radstrom didn't pretend otherwise on the Q3 earnings call: "With regard to the size of the NCP, I think your guess is as good as mine." Rush called the situation a mess, telling investors: "I've never seen an EPA law or decree where it wasn't the same for everybody on one particular date."

Who ships what on Jan. 1?

• Cummins was first to promise a staggered rollout: limited production of the new X10 and updated X15 in January, full production in the third and fourth quarters, NCPs in the interim.
• Paccar told EPA in August it couldn't meet the 35 mg standard without NCPs — without them, engine production would halt. It warned: "The supply base for generators and power electronics is immature, and there has been insufficient long-term testing done to ensure robustness." That's a reversal from February, when executives said Kenworth and Peterbilt would launch two compliant platforms.
• Volvo Trucks North America and Mack will have 35 mg/hp-hr D13 and MP-13 engines available from Jan. 1, but each will also offer EPA 2024-compliant engines for part of 2027, pending the final rule. Volvo Group is rationing 2027 order slots, CEO Martin Lundstedt said Oct. 23.
• International Motors will offer two engine choices, with Traton CEO Christian Levin saying: "The first customers will get their EPA '27-compliant engines in the second quarter." CEO Mathias Carlbaum said International won't use NCPs.
• Daimler Truck North America, maker of the best-selling Freightliner Cascadia, also plans no NCPs, relying on emissions credits plus updated engine and aftertreatment tech. Detroit's Gen 6 DD13 and DD15 arrive beginning in January.

What does this change for fleets?

Prices rise regardless of which truck a fleet buys, ATA's Kelly said. But scarcity pricing without the NPRM and NCPs would have pushed them far higher — "pure cost for our members," in his words — a small mercy after the longest rate recession in industry memory.

Rush's advice to customers was blunt: "Test the new technology before I go all into the pool. Let us dive into the shallow end, not the deep end." Expect fleets to take it.