Cargo Theft Incidents Fall 25%, But Losses Jump 39% to $718.9m

Cargo crime losses across the US and Canada climbed 39% year on year to $718.9m through 23 October, even as reported incidents fell by a quarter, according to new figures from Verisk CargoNet. The data covers 2,072 reported supply chain crime incidents across both countries, down 25% from the 2,755 recorded over the comparable period a year earlier. Fewer thefts, in other words, are costing shippers and carriers considerably more.

"While the number of incidents declined, the financial impact moved in the opposite direction, losses increasing 39% to $718.9m," Keith Lewis, VP of operations at Verisk CargoNet, told The Loadstar. The average documented value of stolen goods surged 72% year on year, from roughly $261,000 per incident to more than $448,000.

What happened in Q3?

The third quarter alone saw 547 recorded incidents, about 33% fewer than a year earlier, yet estimated losses still reached $230.1m. California accounted for the largest share, with 182 incidents, followed by New Jersey, Texas and Illinois.

By commodity, food and beverages were the most targeted category in Q3 with 94 incidents, ahead of metals (63), household goods (49) and electronics (46). Warehouses and distribution centres accounted for 197 reported incidents.

"The data shows why fewer reported incidents should not necessarily be interpreted as lower cargo theft risk. Losses associated with these events are becoming increasingly significant," Mr Lewis said.

Why is deception replacing physical theft?

Fictitious pickups — where criminals impersonate legitimate carriers to collect and divert shipments — remain among the biggest concerns, with 138 such incidents recorded in Q3, compared with 147 in the same period of 2025. "Criminals are looking for ways to exploit identity, communications, and shipment-verification processes to pose as legitimate participants in the supply chain," Mr Lewis said. These schemes typically rely on compromised business email accounts, internet-based phone systems and transport-industry applications.

Scott Cornell, chair of TAPA Americas, argues the nature of cargo theft in the US has shifted fundamentally over the past six years. "Cargo theft has fundamentally changed in the US over the last six years. We have seen massive increases in the overall cargo theft numbers and values, and, in particular, a significant rise in strategic cargo theft," he told The Loadstar.

He estimates strategic theft — deception rather than straightforward physical stealing — has risen tenfold this decade, up from less than 3% of all cargo theft before 2020 to roughly 30% or more today. Most incidents still involve conventional physical theft, but Mr Cornell warned: "Bad actors are using technology such as AI to become increasingly sophisticated and globalised, running these schemes from anywhere in the world."

One emerging technique, the "Trojan Driver Scam", sees criminals infiltrate legitimate, vetted trucking companies — exposing the limits of verification systems that check carriers rather than individual drivers. "Thorough background checks and carrier- and driver-level vetting need to be standard due diligence," Mr Cornell said.

What is Washington being asked to do?

The Airforwarders Association (AfA) is pressing US lawmakers to fold the Combating Organised Retail Crime Act (CORCA) into the final fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act. The bill, already passed by the House of Representatives, would establish an Organised Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Centre and improve intelligence sharing between federal, state and local law enforcement and private sector organisations.

AfA CEO Steve Smith said: "Forwarders are dealing with organised networks across state lines, exploiting gaps between jurisdictions. Republicans and Democrats should continue working together to give law enforcement and businesses the tools to root them out." The legislation would also aggregate theft values over a 12-month period for certain federal stolen property offences, alongside expanded money laundering provisions and criminal forfeiture measures.

AfA members report criminals buying established federal motor carrier registrations from struggling hauliers for $25,000 to $35,000, gaining what looks like years of clean operating history. "It would help investigators connect related incidents across jurisdictions. A fraudulent pickup in one state and a stripped trailer in another may involve the same network, but fragmented information can make connection harder to identify," Mr Smith said.

For forwarders and trucking companies, the immediate defence remains procedural. "Two extra minutes up front can save you two months of difficulty on the back end," Mr Cornell said, urging stronger verification, frontline training and driver identity checks before releasing shipments. With loss values climbing even as incident counts fall, expect due diligence costs to become a permanent line item in freight budgets.