The Baltic Capesize 5TC closed at $45,731 on Friday, surrendering $2,796 from Monday's open despite a $296 rebound in the final session, as tonnage availability grew across the East and Brazil-to-Qingdao fixtures dried up.

Where did Capesize weakness come from?

Tonnage accumulated most heavily in the Pacific, with the North Atlantic failing to match the prior week's support. Brazil-to-Qingdao bookings stayed limited, and loadings rolled fully into the second half of October. The C3 Tubarão-to-Qingdao index dropped from $40.659 to $37.65, equating to round-voyage earnings of roughly $41,814 on China/Brazil and West Africa trips. A midweek burst of West Australia-to-Qingdao fixtures from operators and miners lifted the C5 index to $14.425, with several Newcastlemaxes booked for late-October load dates.

How did Panamax and Kamsarmax react?

Atlantic sentiment stayed split. US Gulf demand firmed and the EC South America October position list tightened, though trade remained largely position-driven and bid-offer spreads stayed wide. An 81,000-dwt open Gibraltar fixed a transatlantic round at $25,000, with another on EC South America delivery at $31,000. A 77,000-dwt on WC India delivery secured EC South America fronthaul at $23,750, while a 78,000-dwt and an 82,000-dwt booked similar cargo at $20,500 and $25,000 respectively.

Pacific activity cooled ahead of China's Golden Week, with Indonesian demand subdued. A 79,000-dwt fixed Indonesia-to-South China at $16,500 and an 82,000-dwt fixed Indonesia-to-South Korea at $20,000. A 96,000-dwt took a North Pacific coal round trip at $20,000, while an 81,000-dwt took $19,000 for a similar grains run. EC Australia-to-China fixed at $20,000 for a 76,000-dwt and $22,500 for an 82,000-dwt.

What shaped Ultramax and Supramax trading?

Coaltrans and the start of Golden Week disrupted the Pacific, but rates held in sporadic deals, with the North Pacific, backhaul, and Indonesian coal all active. Period activity persisted, with a 63,000-dwt open Cebu fixing 5 to 7 months in the low $23,000s. The Indian Ocean stayed flat: a 64,000-dwt fixed basis Port Elizabeth with manganese ore to China at around $26,500 plus a $265,000 ballast bonus.

North American rates bounced early then softened on fronthauls. A 64,000-dwt fixed a petcoke stem to WC India at $37,000 with an option to extend to EC India at $38,000, and a 61,000-dwt fixed a petcoke stem to Iskenderun at $33,000-$34,000. The Continent stayed firm after the prior week's jump but did not push higher. Mediterranean demand stayed short, though EC South America gave owners an alternative as ballasters absorbed the imbalance.

Where did Handysize rates stand?

Trade played out mixed and positional across both basins. The Continent and Mediterranean led, supported by fresh demand. A 33,000-dwt fixed via Cartagena to Colombia at $15,000. The US Gulf and South Atlantic started balanced before cargo enquiry thinned. A 40,000-dwt from SW Pass to EC Mexico was placed on subjects at $21,500, and another 40,000-dwt from Upriver to North Brazil at $26,000.

The Pacific stayed subdued and directionally mixed, with Chinese holidays curbing activity; some sources reported firmer rates as tonnage tightened. A 40,000-dwt fixed from CJK, with 6 October delivery, to Southeast Asia at $21,500. Period enquiry persisted, with a 35,000-dwt booked short period at $16,000.

With Golden Week curtailing Chinese chartering for the coming days and Atlantic front-haul lists tightening into mid-October, the next test for the BCI 5TC will be whether post-holiday miner demand out of West Australia and Brazil can absorb the tonnage build that pushed round-voyage earnings below $42,000 this week.