The additional war-risk premium for Black Sea crude oil cargoes hit $3.70 per barrel on July 29 — the highest level in recent years — before easing to $2.90/b on September 30, according to Platts assessments, as London's Joint War Committee widened its listed-area designations across four contested maritime regions in 2025.

Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association and chair of the Joint War Committee, told Platts the revisions reflect a threat environment that has outpaced earlier risk maps. The committee, which represents insurers in the world's largest marine market, has expanded listed areas in the Black Sea, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Arabian Sea this year.

"There have been quite a significant number of attacks that have fallen outside of the [earlier] listed area," Roberts said, referring to Russian and Ukrainian strikes on commercial ships linked to each other's trades — pressure that pushed nearly all of the Black Sea into listed status last month.

What does the listing change for shipowners?

For shipowners and charterers, the practical effect is procedural and financial: marine insurers charge additional war-risk premiums in high-risk waters, and operators must notify underwriters before entering designated zones.

"If an area is listed and the vessel wishes to go there, yes, they should notify their underwriter," Roberts said. "Otherwise, they won't have cover."

Over 100 merchant ships have come under attack this year, according to estimates from the International Maritime Organization, national governments, and security consultancies. In the Middle East, headline AWRP rates calculated as a percentage of hull value for transits through the Strait of Hormuz have risen more than 40-fold since the Iran war began in late February. Coverage periods have also shortened.

The economics for operators have hardened further. No-claim bonuses, which Roberts said can amount to 50% in peacetime, have shrunk because of the severity of industry losses. The International Union of Marine Insurance recently estimated insurers could lose $2 billion in the Middle East war alone.

How are sanctions complicating casualty response?

The insurance market's exposure is now entangled with Western sanctions policy. S&P Global Energy Horizons data shows 1,226 oil tankers and LPG carriers were under Western sanctions as of August 31 — most linked to Iranian or Russian trades — and those vessels regularly operate in conflict zones.

The risk became tangible in August when Omani authorities reported roughly 390 square kilometers of oil spilled from the Suezmax Caroline Bezengi, a sanctioned tanker that had been stranded after an attack two months earlier.

"It wasn't insured at all, I don't think … because of its designation," Roberts said. "It's the one we've been, the industry as a whole, predicting and now it's happened."

Salvage and pollution responders face an additional layer: when sanctioned parties are involved, they must secure government permits before certain activities — a delay that can worsen environmental damage and prolong shipping disruption.

"If there's a sanction involved, you need to get licenses before you can do anything, and that delay can make the loss worse," Roberts said. "You can't begin to deal with the sanctioned company until you've got the official permission to do it. You have to get the license first, which may or may not be given."

What nuclear questions are insurers watching?

Roberts flagged a longer-term concern: marine nuclear propulsion. Current insurance wordings almost universally exclude nuclear risks, and liability conventions have not caught up to the technology.

"As I understand it, there's a need for change in the liability regime," he said. "In insurance, there would be a need to look at our wordings, which almost all of them exclude nuclear."

Even where alternative fuels are advancing — methanol, ammonia, hydrogen — Roberts said bunkering infrastructure remains the binding constraint for operators weighing newbuild decisions. "The main problem is the infrastructure," he said. "If your vessel is powered by one of these new fuels, you are limited to where you can get supplies."

With listed areas continuing to expand and sanctioned tonnage growing, expect further premium revisions through year-end as underwriters reprice exposure across the Black Sea, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf corridors.