Brokers generating more than $100 million in annual revenue — those moving over 500,000 loads per year — grew volume 15% year over year, while brokers between $10 million and $50 million grew margins 37% over the same period, according to Triumph Financial's new Mile Marker report.

The numbers undercut one of trucking's most repeated talking points: that the brokerage model is collapsing under freight recession pressure.

"The narrative out there in the marketplace is the brokerage model is under assault," said Aaron Graft, founder, vice chairman and CEO of Triumph Financial. "I understand why people are arriving at that generalization. I just do not think it is true."

Speaking with FreightWaves about freight credit risk in 2024, Graft broke the data into two diverging cohorts: enterprise-scale intermediaries winning consolidation from large shippers, and mid-sized brokers quietly expanding profitability.

What is driving the split?

The 15% volume growth at brokers above $100 million signals enterprise shippers are consolidating routing guides toward larger intermediaries. Scale wins volume.

The 37% margin growth at $10 million-to-$50 million brokers has a different engine. Graft attributed it to their positioning in the spot market on both sides of the transaction, particularly relationships with small and medium-sized shippers.

"Volume is vanity, profits are sanity," Graft said. "And so I think there's going to be winners in multiple cohorts."

His definition of winning is precise: earning one's cost of capital — a threshold compliant operators are finally approaching for the first time in years.

Why has new carrier formation stalled?

On the carrier side, Graft described a structural break from every prior cycle he has watched: drivers earning 70 cents a mile who, five years ago, would have obtained their own operating authority are staying put instead.

He cited three compounding barriers:

• Heightened compliance requirements, including CDL enforcement and English language proficiency rules
• ELD compliance burdens
• Insurance scrutiny and the difficulty of getting freight tendered to new authorities in a post-litigation-risk environment

"I don't know that it's ever been harder" to launch a new carrier, Graft said.

The consequence matters for rates. Historically, new carrier formation acted as the relief valve that eased capacity tightness as demand rose. That valve is no longer functioning.

Where is the exiting capacity coming from?

Triumph Financial has seen carrier sign-ups in its factoring and payments network increase even as the broader market sheds capacity. Graft offered a theory: much of the capacity that exited relied on broker quick pays, which carry lower onboarding requirements than the full know-your-customer vetting a factoring company demands.

The economics of working capital sharpen the point. Filling a single truck with diesel now costs roughly $2,000, Graft noted. Carriers unable to access working capital for that purchase sit idle — even when freight rates would cover their full operating costs.

Is immigration enforcement shrinking driver supply?

Graft also addressed the immigration enforcement environment, expressing empathy for fully documented Latino drivers opting out of trucking over fear of detention.

He said fleets are losing compliant drivers over concerns that amount to myths — fears that are nonetheless real and disruptive. He characterized federal enforcement as operating with "a broadsword, not a precision scalpel," hitting needed targets while creating collateral damage for legal operators.

What does this mean for the cycle ahead?

Both Graft and the host agreed the combined effect reinforces the view that this freight cycle will run longer than prior ones, with fewer natural release valves available to restore capacity quickly. Stalled carrier formation, credit-constrained small fleets and driver attrition point to tighter supply meeting the next demand leg — a setup that supports rates for compliant operators with access to capital.