Belships chief: China's switch to dry bulk exporter is reshaping Pacific trades

China has flipped from being an almost sole importer of dry cargoes into a large exporter over the last few years, and Belships chair and CEO Ivar Hansson Myklebust calls it "a very interesting development indeed" — one that is already changing demand for geared bulk carriers in the Pacific.

Speaking ahead of Geneva Dry 2027, the world's premier commodities shipping conference, the Norwegian owner laid out the themes he expects to dominate the sector when the industry gathers in Geneva on April 27 and 28.

Three stand out: China's shifting trade patterns, resilient emerging economies, and a fleet supply picture he regards as unusually legible.

Why does the developing-world story matter for tonnage?

Myklebust's core argument is blunt. Shipping keeps underestimating the developing world.

"We tend to underestimate both the economic growth and physical trade volumes originating to and from developing countries," he says. That error, he argues, has consequences for the smaller ship segments. "The positive development in trade volumes for most minor bulks is due to this development, and on the balance I think this effect will be with us for some time."

The commercial read for owners and operators: handysize and supramax markets keep drawing support from trade flows that mainstream forecasts understate. For a company like Belships, which runs in that space, the tailwind matters. For charterers, it implies tighter fundamentals than headline demand models suggest.

What do we actually know about supply and demand?

On the supply-demand balance, Myklebust draws a sharp line between the two sides of the equation.

"We have uncertainties galore regarding demand development now, while the fleet demographics are pretty well-known for the next three to four years," he says.

That asymmetry frames the central debate he expects in Geneva. Orderbooks and delivery schedules give owners a reasonably clear supply view through roughly 2030. Demand is the wildcard — commodity cycles, Chinese policy, and geopolitics all sit outside anyone's model.

Geopolitics is not an abstract risk in this market. Myklebust points directly at the deadly attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea and the Arabian Gulf.

"I sincerely hope that the hostilities that have caused tragic seafarer casualties both in the Black Sea and the Arabian Gulf have come to an end or at least calmed down significantly by then. Fingers crossed," he says.

Is China's export turn structural?

The China question may carry the most weight for fleet positioning. For decades, dry bulk trades were built around China as the demand sink — iron ore, coal, grains and minor bulks flowing in.

Now the flow runs both ways. "From being an almost sole importer of dry cargoes it has emerged into a large exporter over the last few years," Myklebust says. The shift adds new dimensions to traditional Pacific trade patterns and directly alters demand for geared bulk carriers, the tonnage that can self-discharge in ports without shore-side infrastructure.

Whether China's export role keeps expanding is, in his view, a central question for owners deciding where to place ships.

Where does technology fit?

Don't expect Myklebust to pitch a revolution. He sees the real opportunities in improving everyday shipping processes — maintenance planning, freight collection — rather than in headline-grabbing innovation. Incremental efficiency, not disruption.

Who else is on the panel?

Myklebust joins the Minor Bulks panel at Geneva Dry on Wednesday, April 28, alongside:

• Emilie Nourry of Eramet
• Malgorzata Gill of Holcim Trading
• S.K. Lim of G2 Ocean
• Vincenzo Romeo of Nova Marine Carriers

Derek Langston, Braemar's global head of dry research, moderates.

Myklebust arrives with a deep resume. Before Belships, he headed OMP Management and held senior leadership roles at Höegh Autoliners and Norden. He also chaired Gram Car Carriers until MSC acquired the company.

On why he makes the trip: "Hearing the differing views and opinions from key players from the horses' mouth is always interesting. And meeting market participants from all sides of the business is never a waste of time."

Geneva Dry 2027 runs at the Hotel President Wilson on April 27 and 28. Registration costs $1,050, and organisers have unveiled limited special discount room rates at the five-star hotel for signed-up delegates.

With fleet demographics locked in for the next three to four years and China's export trajectory still open, the supply-demand debate in Geneva should set the tone for how owners position geared tonnage well into the decade.