Air cargo volumes measured by AIQ climbed 26.6% year-over-year in the latest reporting period, putting Mexico's time-sensitive freight market back into measurable growth mode after several quarters of uneven demand.

MEXICONOW carried the AIQ print this week, and the 26.6% figure stands as one of the largest single-period jumps tracked by the air cargo intelligence outlet. Mexico-based forwarders and carriers running established flows through MEX, GDL and MTY will read the number as a clear signal: high-value, time-sensitive cargo is moving in serious volume again, and capacity-planning assumptions built on flat demand need a second look.

What's actually driving the 26.6% jump?

Behind the headline sits a mix of nearshoring tailwinds, modal shift from ocean to air, and renewed demand from the automotive, electronics and medical verticals. Manufacturers that relocated assembly closer to the US border over the past three years have leaned harder on air freight for sub-assemblies, prototypes and finished goods where ocean or ground transit won't fit the production timeline.

Dedicated freighters and belly cargo on long-haul passenger flights have carried the load. Carriers with material exposure to Mexico-US lanes — Aeromexico Cargo, MAS Air, and the integrator networks — have been the natural beneficiaries. Their capacity calls for the next two quarters will hinge on whether this AIQ print holds into the next cycle.

Shippers of perishables — berries, citrus, aquaculture — get a quieter benefit. More belly cargo slots returning to passenger schedules mean better odds of cost-effective lift for time-sensitive cold-chain product out of MEX and GDL.

What does the number mean for shippers and forwarders?

For exporters and importers, a 26.6% bump tightens capacity on key lanes out of MEX, particularly as winter peak season layers on top of any modal shift still running through the network. Forwarders who read the data early will lock block-space contracts before spot quotes respond to the squeeze. Latecomers will pay.

For Mexican 3PLs and customs brokers, the volume bump shows up first in handling at MEX's dedicated cargo terminal, then in drayage traffic to consolidator warehouses in Cuautitlán and Toluca. Both watch the AIQ series closely because their revenue runs almost exactly parallel to the air cargo curve.

Carriers, meanwhile, get the cover they need to defend capacity decisions that have looked risky on paper — adding frequencies, parking freighters, or wet-leasing capacity into the US-Mexico corridor. The yield question, not the volume question, decides whether those decisions make money.

What does the data not yet show?

The AIQ figure doesn't, on its own, separate tonnage growth from new shippers versus modal shift from existing customers moving cargo off slower networks. That distinction matters. A 26.6% gain built on modal substitution is a less durable signal than one built on incremental manufacturing output, and modal shift can reverse quickly when ocean transit times normalize.

The series also doesn't yet show rate levels. Volumes have lifted, but rates — which drive margin for forwarders and yield for carriers — remain the open question. A 26.6% tonnage jump against soft rates would suggest capacity chased demand too aggressively, a familiar pattern on Mexico-US lanes. Forwarders quoting December and Q1 numbers will want the rates data before drawing conclusions.

What's the next milestone to watch?

The next AIQ release will test whether the 26.6% print holds or fades back toward the single-digit growth that marked most of the past year. Forwarders with quarterly reviews coming up will want to see whether the same period — and the period after — sustains a rate above 15%.

Rate filings from Mexican carriers and US-Mexico lane data from BTS will fill in the rest. For now, the AIQ number stands as the clearest single indicator that air cargo out of Mexico has stopped treading water and started moving again.