AI-related cargo accounted for roughly 53% of air freight value carried by IATA member airlines in the first half of 2025 — a structural inversion of the trans-Pacific market. Carriers, integrators and forwarders are quietly rewriting their networks around semiconductors and data-center kit, with concrete pricing consequences on every Asia-US lane.

The DHL study with NYU Business School puts the trajectory in starker terms. AI goods drove 42% of trade growth by value in 2024, then 76% in Q1 2025. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calculated that without AI-related imports, total US imports would have fallen 10%.

What actually changed in the cargo mix?

The previous cycle ran on Chinese marketplace parcels moving business-to-consumer. That trade fell off a cliff after Washington ended the de minimis tariff exemption that had let low-value parcels clear duty-free.

AI freight filled the vacuum — by value, not volume. Eric Kulisch, who reports on international freight, said: "AI's basically replaced e-commerce as the big driver, especially in the US, on the Trans-Pacific market, and even in Europe."

Kulisch noted Taiwan has eclipsed mainland China in total US import value — "all value related... not volume... because of semiconductors." Container flows from Taiwan remain anemic, he added, even as dollar values have grown.

Who's repositioning for the freight?

EVA Air, Korean Air and Japan Airlines have added freighter capacity aimed at AI customers. FedEx and UPS are reorienting parts of their Asia-Pacific and intra-Asian networks toward the cargo type.

Amazon struck a deal with Kuehne+Nagel to handle the bulk of its AI logistics for AWS server-farm construction. For shippers, that means belly space on Asia-US lanes is being optimized for heavier, higher-yield semiconductor shipments rather than light consumer parcels.

Forwarders with exposure to both books will see their e-commerce margins compress and AI margins expand — sometimes on the same flight.

Where does the security risk sit?

Two incidents have made the cargo harder to insure. A truckload of semiconductors stolen in the US illustrates the liquidation problem: high-value chips find ready buyers in sanctioned economies. Kulisch flagged China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as the obvious off-ramp.

Then there is the F-35 parts shipment that ended up in Hong Kong — a Bloomberg-reported UPS-managed move that has put forwarders handling Defense Department logistics under fresh congressional scrutiny. Expect more KYC paperwork on tech cargo, particularly anything touching Taiwan or transiting Hong Kong.

What about the trucking boom that isn't?

Here's the part the data-center hype tends to skip. Data-center construction hit roughly $50 billion in 2024 — impressive-sounding, until you remember US construction activity totals north of $2 trillion. The category remains under 2.5% of the total.

Softness in homebuilding, weighed down by elevated interest rates, and persistent weakness in office space largely offset the surge. So domestic truckload and construction freight demand is closer to flat than booming — a useful corrective to breathless coverage.

So what does this change for shippers?

Three things, practically:

• Air freight contracts on trans-Pacific lanes will increasingly be priced per-kilo for AI-grade cargo, not per-piece for parcels.
• Capacity is going where the value is — tighter peak-season slots for semiconductor shippers, looser ones for general e-commerce.
• Security and compliance costs keep rising on tech cargo, particularly anything routed via Taiwan or mainland China.

The DHL and IATA data points one direction: AI cargo as the marginal pricing setter on Asia outbound air freight through at least 2026. Whether that lifts containerized shipping depends on whether the data-center build-out broadens — or whether the boom remains a narrow Wall Street consensus bet.

Watch the next IATA quarterly for confirmation, or the next chip-cycle downturn for the contrary signal.