Eighty-three percent of air forwarders surveyed by the Airforwarders Association say import tariffs have directly cut their shipping volumes. Nearly half of the same members also reported higher operating costs and heavier administrative workloads — a double hit to margins that is forcing the US air cargo sector to reorganise around three short-term priorities: agility, resilience and investment.

The survey figure anchors a broader market picture in which fluctuating tariffs, customs delays and the end of de minimis exemptions have compounded fuel cost volatility — fuel prices were up 80 percent year on year in August — even as demand remains strong.

What is 'dynamic tariffing'?

Mark 3, a courier wholesaler, has coined the term "dynamic tariffing" to describe an unstable, increasingly protectionist trading environment shaped by rapid US policy changes and the international retaliation that has followed. Matthew Ware, CEO of Mark 3, explained the label: "A reflection of [the environment]. So we're familiar with things like dynamic pricing and the fact that things change very quickly, and what you see today is not necessarily what you'll see next week or tomorrow, and so on and so forth. So it's kind of leaning into that."

For forwarders, the terminology matters less than the operational reality. Steve Smith, CEO of the AfA, framed the core problem: "'Dynamic tariffing' captures the pace of change, but for forwarders the bigger issue is unpredictability."

The commercial consequences land directly on freight decision-making. When rates, coverage and implementation dates keep shifting, forwarders lose the ability to quote reliably, commit to capacity or advise shippers on routing beyond the immediate term.

Is this only a US problem?

Ware argues the phenomenon is global in effect even if American in origin. "We think there's a danger sometimes that we view this as US only. So obviously, for us, we're a US-focused business and it has a direct impact, but I think dynamic tariffing is much bigger than that because when the US changes something, the world changes," he said. "It's changing the way people think about tariffs. The ripple effects are substantial."

One such ripple is already visible in diplomacy. Following the latest trade skirmish between the US and Canada, the Canadian Prime Minister has held talks with the European Union on forging closer transatlantic ties — a realignment that would have seemed unlikely a decade ago.

How are airports and forwarders responding?

Chicago Rockford Airport is pursuing a diversified cargo portfolio as part of its growth strategy, investing in facilities and targeting freight that bypasses congested passenger gateways. Rene Espinet, VP of Cargo Business Development at Chicago Rockford Airport, said: "We are looking for freight that is high value, pharmaceutical, aerospace, consumer electronics, high value chips, believe it or not, concerts or live animals. Cargo that doesn't have to be in the passenger congested airports and can be in airports that are more freighter friendly."

The AfA is pressing Washington for structural answers rather than tactical fixes. "The AfA has consistently called for greater stability and clearer notice, giving forwarders and their customers the confidence to plan, invest, and make longer-term decisions," Smith said. "For the AfA, the priority is therefore greater predictability: stable trade policy, resilient infrastructure, and a regulatory environment that gives forwarders the flexibility to keep cargo moving."

That agenda has a specific policy shape. Smith called on policymakers to "invest in air cargo as a national network, rather than concentrating capacity and funding only at the traditional gateway hubs" — modernising cargo facilities, improving road access, truck staging and parking, supporting digitalisation, and making better use of regional airports when major gateways come under pressure.

Can the sector outlast the volatility?

Smith's assessment is blunt on resilience: "Forwarders are resilient. They may be tested by tariffs, conflict, and infrastructure constraints, but they are strong, and we will continue to stand up for them in Washington and beyond." He also noted that "air cargo has repeatedly proved its value when supply chains are disrupted, finding alternative routes, securing capacity, and keeping critical goods moving."

Whether dynamic tariffing persists long-term remains impossible to say with certainty. What is clear is that the inability to rely on previously held forecasts now threatens the long-term investments and strategy the industry needs — and that fuel prices, up 80 percent year on year as of August, will keep pressure on planning cycles until trade policy stabilises.