36,000 Trucks Gone From Smallest Tier — But Not Off The Road

The one-to-six-truck tier has shed roughly 36,000 tractors since peaking near 398,000 in the first half of 2023, and most of that equipment never left the road. It just changed whose name sits on the authority.

FreightWaves SONAR's count of tractors at carriers with one to six power units (TCTCO.USA) stands at 362,033 — below both its five-year average of about 378,800 and its 12-month average of roughly 364,960. That's a nine percent retreat over three and a half years, effectively unwinding the entire pandemic-era boom in new entrants. The decline has run almost without interruption, regardless of which way freight moved month to month.

The tier is hardly a niche. The latest FMCSA census counts more than 1.8 million active carrier registrations in the one-to-six-truck band, including private and intrastate operators — the overwhelming majority of all registered carriers. The market's broadest base is contracting at its edges.

Where's the squeeze coming from?

Costs, not rates. ATRI put the average marginal cost of running a truck at a record $2.336 per mile in 2025, with driver pay the heaviest line at roughly 82 cents and fuel next at about 48. Then 2026 rewrote the fuel math: the DOE national on-highway diesel average topped its previous all-time high in September and hit $6.127 a gallon by the week of November 9.

At six to seven miles per gallon, that's roughly a dollar a mile in fuel alone — close to double a year earlier. Crude climbed back above $100 a barrel, but diesel outran it as global refining capacity tightened. Insurance adds another 10.6 cents per mile, up nearly four percent on the year, and it hits the smallest operators hardest, with the least ability to self-insure or negotiate. Tolls, maintenance and driver benefits posted the fastest increases ATRI tracked.

Here's the misread to avoid: spot van and reefer rates have actually firmed through 2026, running stronger for this point in the season than any year since 2021, and some dry-van contract estimates call for double-digit increases next year. Volumes are flat, with the SONAR Truckload Volume Index holding near average. The problem is that costs are rising faster than rates can cover — especially fuel, because a load-board carrier rarely sees a surcharge.

A surcharge is a contract-freight mechanism tied to the DOE weekly diesel average. Spot rates are quoted all-in. The owner-operator captures the better rate but eats the full fuel move underneath it. The same gallon costs them more and comes back to them less.

Where do the trucks actually go?

The FMCSA census shows a clean curve in leased-versus-owned tractors by fleet size:

• Owner-operators: about 6.9% of tractors leased
• Fleets of 7–19 trucks: 18.2% leased
• Fleets of 20–100 trucks: 31.6% leased
• Fleets of 101–999 trucks: over 40% leased

A leased tractor in a larger fleet can be a former owner-operator who leased on with their truck, or equipment from a full-service lessor like Penske or Ryder. Both rise with fleet size, and both point the same way. In the 20-to-100 band alone, the census shows more than 217,000 term-leased tractors alongside roughly 466,000 owned ones — a figure that cross-checks neatly with SONAR's separate 470,402 count for the same band.

Not every exit is a lease-on. Some operators sell outright, and the used iron tends to get bought by fleets a size or two up. Either way, the equipment consolidates upward.

Why the middle absorbs it

The 20-to-100 tier holds only about 44,500 carriers — under two percent of the total — yet runs roughly 1.75 million power units. That band can negotiate a real fuel-surcharge program, buy diesel in volume, and spread insurance and maintenance across dozens of trucks. Big enough for scale, small enough to stay nimble and regional.

One data caveat worth flagging: the recent jump to a net 1,279 authority change is distorted by the FMCSA Motus rollout, which pushed a backlog of reinstatements through. Read it with caution.

What does this change for shippers and brokers?

Capacity isn't leaving trucking; it's consolidating into larger, more durable operations that can withstand six-dollar diesel and flat volumes. That makes the capacity base stickier and harder to shake loose — less of the quick, rate-sensitive spot capacity brokers have grown used to since 2020. For owner-operators, the data reframes the question: not whether to stay in trucking, but whether to stay in it alone. With diesel at record highs and contract pricing forecast to climb, the operators who know their cost per mile to the penny will hold; the spot-dependent and undercapitalized will keep drifting toward the mid-sized fleets' lease-on desks.