ImportGenius has identified a more than $100 billion gap between what China reported shipping to the United States last year and what U.S. records show as received, a discrepancy the trade data firm says exposes the limits of official customs statistics and the rising weight of bill-of-lading intelligence in supply chain decisions.

The Houston-based platform arrived at the figure by converting its shipment-level records into TEUs, the standard 20-foot equivalent unit, then cross-referencing that count against U.S. Census dollar values to derive a per-container value. Comparing the metric to China's own TEU-normalized export data produced what the company called a "mystifying" delta. Possible drivers include transshipment through Vietnam and other third countries, mis-declared shipment values, and incentives tied to tariff optimization.

"Some of the incentive in this might simply be related to tariff and optimizing for tariff bills," CEO Michael Kanko said.

What does the gap mean for shippers and compliance teams?

Shipment records — which capture markings on individual boxes, container contents, shipper and consignee identities, and notified parties — are now a frontline tool for sourcing, sanctions vetting, and brand protection. Kanko offered a specific case: a U.S. aviation parts seller weighing a buyer in Turkey used ImportGenius to confirm whether that counterparty had transshipped to Russia within the past 30 days. Footwear manufacturers, meanwhile, track counterfeit sneakers flowing out of Asia through the same data layer.

With global sanctions at historically high levels, compliance teams are leaning on container-level records to vet new customers in a way customs filings alone cannot support.

How are freight flows shifting away from China?

Kanko said ImportGenius is seeing rising shipment activity out of Vietnam, Mexico, and other Asian and South American origins. The company recently added access to Mexican shipment-level trade data, including transborder land crossings between Mexico and the United States — a feed that gives importers visibility into nearshoring moves as policy uncertainty drags on.

He expects international ocean shipping volumes to hold, and possibly intensify, through at least the U.S. midterm elections, citing persistent tariff and trade-policy churn as the main driver.

A second-order effect is domestic lead generation:

• U.S. manufacturers are using ImportGenius to identify importers of products similar to their own output
• The behavior builds prospect lists at a moment when pricing dynamics favor domestic suppliers over Chinese ones
• Kanko said the trend is markedly stronger than when the company was founded nearly 20 years ago

Why is air cargo the next battleground?

Nearly half of U.S. imports by value arrive by air, yet no public manifest data exists for those shipments. Kanko attributes the gap to a maritime-era statute that has not been updated since the 1970s, even as air cargo's share of trade value has ballooned.

ImportGenius has spent three years lobbying for the Manifest Modernization Act, which has companion bills in the House and Senate and bipartisan co-sponsors. The legislation has drawn backing from the House Ways and Means Committee, the Senate Finance Committee, and the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Kanko has testified before Ways and Means, and the company is exploring whether the bill could be attached to the annual defense reauthorization package before year-end.

What changes if the bill passes?

If enacted, the act would compel public disclosure of air cargo manifest data in a form comparable to the ocean bills of lading that ImportGenius already indexes. The practical effect for shippers and forwarders would be:

• Real-time visibility into high-value air freight moving into U.S. airports
• A new dataset for sanctions enforcement teams already strained by air cargo's opacity
• Sharper competitive intelligence for U.S. manufacturers weighing reshoring decisions

The legislative clock now runs through the defense bill, where ImportGenius hopes to ride bipartisan momentum on China competition into year-end passage.